Wrong vs Wrong Final - mytrbroadcast.com

Over the last few years, especially the last few posts, I’ve laid out my arguments as to why one should view these “markets” with extreme caution. I’ve made many calls that were both accurate and prescient. However, with that said, if one had disregarded any of it, remained oblivious to all of it, then, looked at a cart of the S&P 500™ as of Friday’s close. One would have to ask themself “Just what is all the fuss about?”

It’s a valid point. Not one I hold, but valid nonetheless for currently: ignorance is bliss. Simple as that and has been for now going on a decade. Every single issue or crisis to date has been rectified via the Federal Reserve’s adulteration and perversion of this once great representation of capital formation. It’s now the casino of choice, both Las Vegas and Macau looks on in envy.

The latest move of starting up QE (i.e., money printing) without calling it QE, to begin inflating its balance sheet to the tune of ~$40Billion monthly only 10 days after the program to supposedly reduce it, was basically, the final nail in any idea these “markets” would ever be left to their own devices. In the face of that there was one seemingly good thing it did prove in-spades: my assertion and argument that without the Fed — these “markets” could not stand. That fact is now been publicly proven, regardless of what any so-called “market expert” would argue otherwise.

So now, with that all said, it gets me to the last word in the headline “Final.” e.g., This is the last post regarding “markets” until MYTR returns. And even then I may never (yes, I used that word intentionally) post charts and more as I have done going forward. Not because I’ve been “proved wrong” by this latest rally, but rather, because, why bother. It’s meaningless, no one wants to hear it, no one cares. Simple. As. That.

This recent rally into a new “To da moon!” hysteria may just be the final launch. Every single metric, reason and more for how it got here, why its here, again, and more is based on pure “hopium.” I could list reason after reason as to why this may be the most dangerous of all the rallies in the last few years. I could make the case for why if this latest new high doesn’t hold — we could experience the greatest sell-off since the GFC of 2008. Or, said differently, return to the path I’ve been pointing out all these many months. Why? Because nothing’s changed. But again, who cares, “BTFD!” (buy the f’n dip) is back.

If you think I’m off base (and I know you’re out there) just ask yourself this question: Where do you think these “markets” would be if the Fed hadn’t restarted a QE program in December? Then look at one of my past charts and try to envision with everything that’s happened since where they would have actually been in response. Now, look at the rally over the last two weeks and try to fit that into or overlay it under those circumstances. Think you’ld still be at these levels? Think you could of even rallied back to par?

But again, it does not matter. The Fed has now instilled a “No Fear” attitude. BTFD or just “Buy and Hold for deal life” is now enshrined as a Fed supported program. The issue here is just how far the Fed is going to have to continue going forward to keep it all together. It’s already shown it now can not allow even two weeks without support or it collapses. Today it’s now back to $40Billion. I’m going to argue it will be more around the $400Billion mark in the not too distant future. Yes, it’s that bad under the surface. But as I repeat ad nauseam — It just doesn’t matter. No one cares. Their 401K balance proves all they want to know.

Personally, I’m no longer interested in whether or not this cohort truly understand the dangers any longer. “Good Luck with that.” Is all I can say. Not in malice, but in true regards. It’s really not that much more complicated than that.

There’s a big difference in being a Cassandra vs a Chicken Little. Ms. Little did nothing but scream the sky was falling when it was obvious to everyone it wasn’t. e.g., she was wrong. The difference with Cassandra, if I have my ancient history correct, is that she was granted with the gift of knowing the future, then cursed with no one would believe her. e.g., she was right. Yet, both end in the same place, it’s also why we conflate the two so often without so much as an after though. e.g., both are wrong depending on one’s overarching viewpoint.

This is the situation I find myself still i.e., more in common with Cassandra than Little. But does it really matter in the end? I’ve come to the conclusion that yes, yes it does, however, I don’t need to try and express or defend my positions relating to “markets” any longer. Why? Do I really need to repeat myself?

So now, with all of that now added, I’m going to leave you with two charts. The first is a close up version of the S&P as of Friday’s close. I’ve left all my past notations as to show what I was calling, what happened, then what took place over the past two weeks. The second is the same only a pulled back version that shows what I still hold as possible if not highly probable. I am still of the argument that this latest rally, as impressive as it has been, is nothing more than a mirage and respite from the true instability that lies within.

I also believe that it is this true “instability” that allowed for it to happen in the first place. And for those that are still a bit skeptical on my original premise. I leave you with this that came into my feed the other day. It’s from an article over at the Mises Institute. To wit:

In less than two years, the RRP withdrawals injected around $100 to $200 billion+ a month into the financial system at its peak. This was effectively a backdoor stimulus program that bypassed the Fed’s official QT narrative and funded the government’s deficit. Correlation does not equal causation, but it’s also not surprising that the Dow Jones broke out to new highs at almost the exact moment the RRP began to unwind.

The system was running on stored liquidity thanks to a giant buffer accumulated during the pandemic stimulus era. But as of 2026, that buffer is gone. The RRP liability has flatlined at essentially zero, meaning that the trillion-dollar offset to QT has been fully exhausted.

Perhaps it was no coincidence that once the RRP hit empty, the Fed’s tightening ended. On December 11, 2025, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York announced it would begin Reserve Management Purchases (RMP’s) at a pace of approximately $40 billion per month. While they use Fed-speak to avoid the term Quantitative Easing (QE), in reality, they’ve returned to official balance sheet expansion. They are being forced to replace the lost RRP liquidity with fresh money printing.

Robert Aro/Mises Institute

For those that have been reading my continued posts over the years. It should not surprise you that the idea of the Fed’s Reverse Repo Operation and my posting of its subsequent chart over these past few years calling it “The most important chart to everything” are now being considered or addressed in reasons for “Why?” that I argued for the last few years.

But for one last time: Does it really matter?

Hint: No. Not to the vast majority, that includes CEO’s, business leaders and more. So there’s no reason for me to even pursue this avenue any longer. So, that’s it. Simple as that.

Below are those last two charts I spoke to prior…

And now pulled back…

And there you have it, truly, my last words on the subject going forward until, at least, once the show and more is relaunched this summer.

As always, thank you too all that have followed my work up until this point. I sincerely wish you all the best in the coming future. You have my respect and my gratitude for your attention and considerations.

Just remember…

Again, thank you.

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