Wrong Vs Wrong Update - mytrbroadcast.com

In my last note I expressed (as I’ve done many times prior) why I decided to no longer follow and give commentary of the “markets” as I once did. Since then, like I also expressed, I get questions sometimes in earnest, sometimes I feel they’re more intended to needle. i.e., “You’re just wrong, don’t know what you’re talking about. Just admit it!”

As I’ve also expressed ad nauseam — the latter has a valid point if all one looks at are the current results. Today’s new all time high in the S&P 500™ for instance is a perfect example. I was calling for caution since October of last year. Everything I cautioned e.g., the Fed would have to reverse course or it all falls apart and more, seemed to show exactly what I was cautioning. Bitcoin crashed, the “markets” kept drifting lower and fell precisely where I believed they would. All before hand. So what’s happened since?

Over the course of about 10 trading days: Any and all prior issues from the months prior appear to have been wiped aside, even the idea of war is all but irrelevant. Not only it’s as if nothing happened, it’s now better than nothing happening. “Just look at my 401K balance!” is now the default expression once again. Has anything been solved? Has the war ended? Is oil back to cheap? Hint: Nope. So why are the “markets” back into the stratosphere? Here’s my answer…

There is no longer any fear of risk: The Fed, once again, proved that in December. Everything is just a trade in a rigged casino. And the casino is so rigged with alternative ways to play that allow indexes and stocks to move like they’re on a super-bonus spin at the slots is all it is. Zero day till expiry options, options in general, retail gamblers working in hordes and more, much more. But that’s how Wall Street likes it now. Wouldn’t you if knew at the end of it the Fed continues to show it has it’s back? Can’t argue with success, and I’m not foolish enough to continue and try.

Here’s an example using a completely different “market” while at the same time is instrumental to anything happening in ours: Japan.

Back in April of last year I was pointing out the issues in Japan. I was using charts showing why there were issues from a technical perspective, while also explaining why if Japan wasn’t solved or fixed or whatever it would have devastating effect on ours because it’s so tied in. e.g. “Carry Trade” et al.

To those points here a chart showing what I was pointing to. To wit:

As you can see (the chart above is via weekly increments) Japan’s Nikkei™ was suffering enormous plunges. At that time it was those plunges were transferring across the world and showing up here in ours, for those that remember. Japan’s government was in a tizzy trying to articulate what is was going to do next. They had embarked on a process that was to “sure up their currency and more” and I said at the time it couldn’t be done. Just like I say about our own Federal Reserve. As you can see, that last plunge was about to really make things interesting. But then?

Just like our own Fed. announce you won’t do what you said you were, add more language to the tune of “We’re working on it, we’ll get back to you later.” aka kick-the-can. All the issues that caused the distress are all still there and gaining further pressure, but they’re just ignored in a “Never mind.” styled press release after release. Result? Again, to wit:

Again, nothing’s been solved, nothing’s different, everything’s the same even the finger pointing is the same, e.g., “St. Cyr, you just don’t know what you’re talking about! Admit it!!”

The issue here is (or was) I have proven over and over that I do, the issue is, I can no longer try to explain “This is just insane casino type behavior that’ll end in tears.” to people that now only care about their current 401K balance. That is, as long as it’s positive. And are they wrong? Let’s look at our own current “market” and see, shall we?

When I was opining on what may be portending back in October, no one was arguing what I was. All through those months until just about 10 days ago my arguments appeared justifiable with evidence to substantiate them. Then… “You Are Here” is all anyone now cares about. Period, end of story.

Everything I argued prior is not only considered as Casandra like, it’s more in-tune with Chicken Little. Why? Easy – look at the above. Simple as that.

Again, was I wrong a few months ago? Was I wrong when arguing about Japan and it’s complications to us? Nope. Has it mattered in the end? As I’ve expressed so many times prior, the world seems to now be very comfortable imitating Alfred E. Neuman’s famous posture…

All I can add to all of the above is this…

These new all time highs had better hold — or there’s going to be not just a lot of worry to go around, but panic.

As always we’ll see.

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