Wrong vs Wrong - mytrbroadcast.com

I’m asked every once in a while by some why I “really” decided to no longer offer daily commentary regarding the stock market. When I answer I usually get the follow up of “No, really.” as if I’m trying to obfuscate. Today encapsulates precisely why — in vivid detail.

Let me explain using the dialogue scenario, it goes something like this…

Them: I see you still do some adjunct type commentary once and a while on your site, but not in the detail you did before, why?

Me: Because there’s really nothing left to say other than: The things broken and falling apart all need a Fed intervention to stop it. For instance: “markets” go down, just like I warned, Fed steps in with another program they said they would not need, reversing everything they said prior, then, suddenly, markets go back up. Rinse, repeat. Simple as that.

Them: C’mon, it can’t be that simple. You’re now talking years if not a decade or more, surely there’s more to it. So again, really, why?

Me: OK, so I’ll ask you this: Do you remember when the Fed was touting at every presser how they were reducing their balance sheet and the financial media was applauding how their “steady hand” was doing just what they said it would and was the reason why the “markets” were going higher? Do you remember what I said would happen?

Them: Yes, you said the markets could not hold unless they not only stopped it, but restarted QE (money printing) again. But they haven’t done that, so what’s the reason for these markets seemingly stabilizing?

Me: They did restart QE just like I said in December, to the tune of $40Billion a month to start and will adjust it up or down as they feel prudent.

Them: Wait, I didn’t hear about any new QE program?

Me: Correct, they don’t call it QE any longer. It’s now called “Reverse Management Purchases.” There are arguments made about why it’s not QE and such, however, it’s all semantics in my view. Like I keep stating — they end a program they say they can; things begin to fall apart; they begin a new program that prints $10’s of billions once again less than 10 days after the other ends; and everyone claps like something other than turning the printers back on has happened. Simple as that.

Them: Then what explains this latest pop, nearly recovered all the gains that were lost since the beginning of the year?

Me: There are a myriad of reasons why, all of them legit, all of them I’ve argued previously. Nothing’s changed, things are not better, in fact, one could argue, they’re getting worse by the day. I’ve warned about the private credit debacle happening behind the scenes before most even understood the implications. Now that very same area is not only not stabilizing – it’s getting worse. The financial press is just barely covering any of it, and they’ll keep it all at arms distance until they can no longer avoid to. Hint: when it actually begins systemically affecting the entirety of the market much like the mortgage mess that facilitated the GFC, only then will it suddenly be “Today’s Top Story!”

Them: Then why don’t you keep writing or talking about it? Seems like you have a viewpoint that’s legitimate, again, so why not?

Me: Because here’s all that people want to believe — I’m wrong. And as proof, it’s all basically f### what I say, their 401K statement is saying otherwise.

It’s a valid point, valid if you want to believe things are just going along swimmingly. But I can’t do that, that’s for the likes of the cheerleaders on the financial/business media. All they want to show are pom-pom wavers, everything else is jettisoned into the trash bin. And it appears that’s all that the viewers want.

So why fight this anymore or again? Those that truly want to know my thoughts I’ve been posting when I feel I have something worth while to address they may not get somewhere else. But other than that, I don’t need, nor want, to argue anymore about why something is what it is and not the butterflies and unicorns like so many people want to hear. I’ve moved on and feel much better for it. The other became tiresome if not flat out foolish.

Them: So what do you think about today’s ongoing rally?

Me: More of the ongoing oversold relief rally or bounce, propelled higher and stronger because of short covering and additional earnings exposure which started in earnest today (JP Morgan, Chase™ reported), nothing more. Once it’s over, if my original thesis was correct, look for not only new lows, but much lower lows and in a hurry that takes everyone by surprise.

Them: That sounds a bit over-simplistic, don’t you think?

Me: Just say it already: You think I’m not only wrong but have been for a long time.

Them: Silence.

And there you have it. As always, we shall see. But for now, here’s where things stand as of around noon-time U.S. To wit:

For all those that too believe I’ve been nothing but wrong, best of luck is all I can say.

I believe you may need it in the not too distant future.

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