The Unthinkable Is Now Squared – mytrbroadcast.com

I’m just going to note two different actualities. First: One I described might happen, that is now in the process of becoming a reality. And Second: One that no one believes remotely possible, but just might be more probable than simply possible with today’s sudden “market” reactions.

The first as I said on the show yesterday…

The immediate market response to the election provided another example of why conclusions should not be drawn too quickly. During the overnight trading session, markets declined sharply as the election results developed. By the following morning, much of that weakness had reversed.

The prevailing commentary began attributing the recovery to expectations of political gridlock and a supposedly favorable environment for financial assets.

I was not persuaded.

My interpretation was that much of the movement reflected trading mechanics rather than a fundamental reassessment of the political landscape. Investors had positioned themselves against uncertainty. Once the results became clearer, some of those hedges could be reduced or removed. Short positions could be covered, and portfolios could be adjusted.

Those actions can produce substantial market movements without demonstrating anything particularly meaningful about the longer-term economic outlook. I had been watching for something more severe, particularly a decline substantial enough to trigger market-wide circuit breakers. That would have suggested a very different situation.

Currently, less than 24 hours later, the last paragraph in that argument is now front and center as a real possibility. Something no one basically contemplated as possible, nevermind plausible.

Next is what I alluded to at the beginning. It’s not a prediction, but is a very real probability if this selling continues as it currently is displaying it just might. Ready?

Anthropic™ delays its IPO or shelves it indefinitely citing “Market conditions.”

You heard it here first.

As always, we shall see.

ADDENDUM: I added an updated version of my long running chart of the S&P 500™ as of the cash close today, Thursday. It’s self explanatory. To wit:

And if you want to get my gut feeling as to what may be coming as a result of all this. I’ll let our latest addition of artwork speak for me, again to wit:

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