Mark The Calendar: Bubble Pops – mytrbroadcast.com

I’m going to make this brief for I can expand on this more on Friday’s show, but here’s the gist…

The “Everything Bubble” may have indeed just popped. The implications if true are profound and It could rival 2008. Yes, I just said that.

I’ve been arguing for quite sometime that these “markets” will keep yearning for the sky as long as it is either, implicitly verifiable or directly so, that The Federal Reserve continues to have its back, but with this caveat – until it can’t. We may have reached that “can’t” aspect this week.

On Tuesday of this week the 10 Year US Treasury Yield not only spiked above 5%, more importantly, it has remained there and risen further. The entire Bond market was set aflame with a supposedly “great” number in the PMI report (note: I previously wrote PPI by mistake).

What this did, from a Wall Street perspective, is signal the Fed now has more leeway to hike interest rates even higher. It also showed in real-time with hard evidence with a bond sale of 5 Year Bills that was by all accounts disastrous settling with yields above 5%, not seen in the last 19 years. That sent everything in bond land reeling as I mentioned earlier.

Below is an updated chart of the one I’ve been calling attention to not just for months, but going on years. It was taken ~12:45am ET today. To wit:

As you can clearly see, we are no longer pushing within that shaded area, but have now pushed through with gusto. If it remains in free-space and hovers there, things will begin to get real crazy in a lot of areas everyone believed settled. If it continues to go higher?

All. Bets. Are. Off. Everywhere.

If you think this is hyperbole, let me give you just one example of how that “settled” area is now morphing into an unsettling one…

Oracle’s Massive “Project Jupiter” Data Center Declares Force Majeure, Jeopardizing Entire US AI Rollout – ZeroHedge™

Here’s why I’m saying “Mark The Calendar”…

What needs to be understood (and is little to not by just about everyone) is Bonds (e.g., Treasuries) are in direct competition for funding with Corporate Bonds soliciting funding for these data centers. Data centers prospective usage (aka sales to AI companies) are what allows the story that AI companies such as OpenAI™ and Anthropic™ to book usage in the future and companies like Oracle™ count it as money already in “the bank.” Hint: it’s not.

Most of all of the billions upon billions of $s that have been reported as real, has been nothing more than accounting gimmicks looking like real revenue when its only been promises. Think of it like many of you have heard me say over the years: The Silicon Valley model is more akin to the Popeye character, Wimpy’s bargain: “I’ll gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today.” Just don’t ask us to ever deliver on it.

And now – that entire facade may be cracking in real-time. Yet most will just shrug.

2007 was much the same, just sayin’.

As always, we shall see. But see we shall.

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