For Those Wondering – mytrbroadcast.com

In the complex world of financial markets there truly is only one segment that forces the world to conform to its fears: Bonds.

Bonds are where the real money of the market safely rests (supposedly) while allowing its heft to be used (think: collateralized) for everything else. Yes, its an extreme oversimplification, but its the overall idea, along with its implied mechanical structure to said markets, that’s important to understand, not the minutia.

And here is where things are about to, possibly, get a bit more “jiggy” as the term goes.

Currently the stock market with its various IPO’s in waiting (e.g., OpenAI™, Anthropic™ et al.) are nothing more than cash burn entities. They need to raise enormous amounts of money to continue operating.

They need to do this via two ways – endless, and ever increasing in size funding rounds, or an IPO. The money that helps sustain general bond markets with demand and fulfillment is in direct competition with these. In other words, there’s only so much money to go around and at some point there is a moment that its either this or that, simple as that.

Hint: think of the implications if we enter that zone as you will. Think things just go on as usual?

The Federal Reserve’s sole duty (in reality) is to make sure bonds are well bid and protected. That protection lies in the well felt price known as interest rates. Again, its as simple as that.

Currently, the bond markets are looking very nervously at the current world of finance. What that “look” does in reality is to begin demanding higher interest rates for the availability of their money. And if its not paid? They remove it, aka sell. If they begin selling (or no longer buying is just as important) markets go from, to use an analogy – moving from a few catching the sniffles, to an outright influenza outbreak.

I believe we have finally moved into that “sniffle” area. I’ve posted the chart below many, many months ago, pointing out what where to watch for clues that may signal far more than any television financial pundit even understood. I post it below, it’s from ~8:00am ET. It’s self explanatory. To wit:

With a scheduled Fed meeting coming up in a week or so, along with everything else simultaneously going on in the world, That top line and statement tells one everything they need to know in my humble opinion.

Disregard that signaling at ones own peril, is all I can say from here, for I guarantee you there are two people whose eyes are glued to it…

Federal Reserve Chair Walsh and Treasury Secretary Bessent.

Their reactions and policy actions will be entirely focused on stabilizing (if they break out) that market first, everything else be damned.

And yes, that includes stocks.

As always, we shall see.

Disclaimer: The content published across MYTR reflects opinions, analysis, and perspective.
It is offered to inform thinking and encourage consideration—not to provide instruction, direction, or individualized advice. How any idea is interpreted, evaluated, or applied remains the responsibility of the reader, listener, or viewer, as applicable.
Responsibility for decisions—and their outcomes—begins and ends with the individual making them. Please read, or re-read the “Policy Notes” page for any questions or clarifications.