F.T.W.W.T.K.W.I.W. - mytrbroadcast.com

(For Those Who Want To Know What I’m Watching)

I had an interesting conversation the other day I thought I’ld share. I’m going to express it like I usually did back in the day, in conversation form. Here it is…

Them: You know I was highly doubtful about your call back in October about things coming off the rails regarding the markets. I took it with a grain of salt (as I usually suggest) because they always bounce back even stronger if there was any turmoil. Then, as if right on cue, things did begin to go haywire. Bitcoin™ went nearly straight down and has not recovered a bit. However, the markets did recover, even going higher. But it just seems we’ve gone nowhere since. What are your thoughts on that?

Me: What you need to have perspective on regarding my call is this: the markets basically going no where for months (aka screaming sideways) that’s very much a signal (my conjecture) that the underlying issues I warned to be on the watch for may have indeed happened. The issue is, like I’ve stated back then, is the markets because of 401(K) automatic influx and such will mask for a time how broken they really are underneath. Bitcoin doesn’t have that cushion, so it fell, hard, and remains.

The more I watch the indexes, the more that look as if their running on fumes. All that’s been holding them up is a Fed meeting, year end earnings to white wash Christmas bonuses, and what they expect (aka tell/sell) coming next quarter. So far, all that’s materialized is managed earnings clearing lame hurdles, and now it’s becoming more apparent by the day the Fed is going to be far more hawkish on rates than Wall Street was originally hoping for. But it goes much further than that.

For the time being Japan’s crisis appears to be solved, but it is not. The rumbling of such is what we’ve been really working through over these many weeks. It’s really all been jawboning, hopium, nothing more. And that’s a problem, a big problem because what that did (again, all my conjecture) has done is to basically limit, if not blow up in certain sectors, the once limitless carry trade.

As I keep watching the markets all I see is the algos front-running each other and any possible news trying desperately to kick a squeeze higher. They’ve been successful as of late, but it appears it’s all running out of steam. It’s now moving in such technical fashion its laughable. But that’s the issue to my eye. When these markets can do nothing more than hit levels and trend lines, then react in text book manners – that’s when you should really be on high alert, and I think we may be there.

As always, we’ll see.

To show precisely what I was expressing in this conversation I’m going to post the latest update to the chart I’ve been using of the S&P 500™. It is updated as I type this on Thursday ~10:15am ET. To wit:

It speaks for itself, but is now showing more of what I’ve been arguing since October.

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