2025 Final Wrap – mytrbroadcast.com

I’m going to both end 2025, as well as begin 2026, with a quick synopsis of both. What you take away from it going forward is up to you, as it should be.

Regarding 2025…

I had originally planned to relaunch the site and show early in the year. I planned for it, started actually doing it, then cut it off abruptly, twice. The first time I stopped was during the initial trial runs as to see if my voice was up to par or needed to be worked back up to strength, much like a long distance runner whose taken a season off.

I found, to my amazement, I was still in reasonably good shape and ready to go. I then abruptly stopped the trials and noted the show would return in full form very soon. Then, about a month or so later, I completely reversed course and made the conscious decision to shut it all down. I wrote my reasons why at that time, but since they are now all in the archives, here’s the gist of what I wrote…

Although I’m changing the format of the site and show, Wall Street and the capital markets still need to be play a role in my thoughts and content. The reason for this is that business of all shapes and sizes, as well as people of every stripe both trying to navigate them within the corporate structure and out, are more tied to the waxing and waning movements than most comprehend. However, today, this has been reduced to something more akin to a PA announcer calling the twist and turns of a horse-race. And as long as these markets keep ascending in a near vertical fashion as they have these past months – no one wants to hear (nor will tune in) to hear anything other than – Win, Place and Show style banter. Period.

If I call, called, point or pointed out anything that merits caution – it’s met with derision. And yet, why should it not? If throwing caution to the wind nets an ever increasing result for “winning!” Then why on earth would anyone listen to the opposite for insights which calls and warns for caution and prudence, only to miss out on what appears to be everyone else around them making bank? Let alone while also paying for it. It makes no sense, so I’m not going further. I’ll decide if I’ll do anything in the future. I’ll keep you posted on either.

And with that I signed off in the spring of 2025, however, for those of you that have been following my work over the years, I kept posting my thoughts when I felt warranted for those wanting to know what I was thinking at any given time.

Although the frequency was sporadic, when I thought something important was shaping up that no one appeared to recognize, let alone grasp, I did just that with charts and commentary.

Then on October 7th, 2025, I made a very bold prediction in a post titled “Going On The Record.” I’ve made similar predictions over the years, but this time, it was against a total backdrop of pie-in-the-sky Bitcoin™ and to-the-moon for the S&P™ too! Santa’s usual Christmas rally into year-end was not only a given – it was going to hand out more bonuses than an elf handing out candy.

Well, it did, and it didn’t.

The prediction was (paraphrasing) everything that was told and sold regarding 2025 was about to come undone. The usual Christmas rally may end up being more akin to a lump of coal than the usual fanfare so many were drooling of.

Then, with near immediacy, Bitcoin began to slide only to pick up steam, to then seemingly cliff dive till it finally stopped, losing $45,000+ of its just weeks prior high of ~ $126,000, to where it remains as of this writing bobbing between $85,000 and $90,000. That’s a far cry from where all the aficionados declared, with near certainty and in unison, something around the $250,000 mark.

As for the “markets.” They too began the same process, only this was reversed as Fed officials began jabbering and insinuating a rate cut was indeed in order after previously signalling that no such thing was forthcoming prior. Wall Street began pricing it in reversing the near zero odds to a near certainty just as fast. However, as I had been arguing, it may not be enough for the “markets” for they were now unraveling under the strains and pressure from the Fed’s prior actions of reducing its balance sheet. Just like I argued it would to the howls of many.

I said then as I do now – the Fed can not do what they say they can. I was proved correct in-spades in December when the Fed couldn’t even go 10 days from their reduction plan – to having to totally reverse and begin inflating it once again, immediately before we went into a complete crisis mode.

Only for this reason were the “markets” able to give a sigh of relief and post a “winning” year.

If the Fed had not went about, in full view, basically reversing every single notion they stated prior and began printing once again? The capital markets, in my humble estimation, would resemble the current crypto market far more intensely than what is now being hailed.

To give an example of just what I mean, I’ll post a few charts that speak for themselves. First, here’s what the S&P 500 via daily increments looked like at the time of my warning. To wit:

As you can clearly see, it was a straight up rocket ride since April. And for those that don’t remember, that was just about the time I decided to stop with the site. The reason? The Fed was, once again, coming in to save the “markets” and I was done pointing it out.

The funny thing that transpired after, going into year end, was not of the same as the entire mainstream business/financial media was asserting. As a matter of fact, here’s what transpired, again, to wit:

Basically, from the last trading day of October to the last trading day of December 2025 the total gain was less than 5 points, that’s not a typo. By the pace and trajectory of everything earlier, as shown on the prior chart, the ending price was suppose to close out beginning with a least a 71, 72 or 73 handle, again, at the least. Yet, it basically went nowhere, literally. That is, if you don’t count the near death scares for rescue via the Fed it had in getting there.

However, much like I argued in those prior notes, it’s not like everything’s now “fixed.” Quite the contrary – everything that was causing the pressures are still there, not resolved, and quite possibly beyond the simple papering over that’s transpired into year end.

It is in my estimation that the “markets” are quite possibly at the beginning stages that crypto was in October. As I described in prior notes – the only reason why it may have held to together for a bit longer is for it’s underlying structure with buybacks, 401K’s et al. And once the vacation atmosphere of the holidays begin to abate, so too might the illusion of “fixed.”

As always, we shall see. For 2026 is only two days in.

Note: This commentary is for education purposes only and is not to be construed as trading or investing advice of any sort. These commentaries/opinions are for “big picture” discussion purposes only. Please read, or re-read the “About This Site” page for any questions or clarifications.