Pre-Christmas Wrap Up - mytrbroadcast.com

As we sit here after the last full week of trading before the Christmas holiday, I think it’s important to point out a few things that no one contemplated just a few short months ago, yet resulted in precisely what I warned about, to the howls of many.

On October 7th, I went on the record with a prediction that the end-of-year results had a much more ominous connotation going in rather than the exuberant “To The Moon!” circle-jerk being heralded across the media.

First, for a bit of context, here’s what I stated in that October note…

Mark your calendars today, October 7, 2025 as possibly being that moment when everything most have been told & sold by the so-called “experts” across the mainstream business/financial media complex vanishes into the ether – along with their balances. It also will show why I’ve waited (to the complaints of many) to keep the relaunch of the show and site sidelined and waiting to be ready until exactly this point.
https://mytrbroadcast.com/2025/10/07/going-on-the-record/

Below is a chart of where the “markets” were on that day…

And here is what has transpired to this point…

As one can clearly see – this has not been the price action promised (or even considered possible) by the mainstream financial media going into the holidays. No, it was “A Santa Rally” is all that’s going to happen i.e., a further melt up into new highs, never looking back. So far there’s been three definitive near death experiences which I pointed out as not just possible, but probable, in real time. But there was something else far more improbable I argued was going to be needed to keep them afloat that no one, once again, even thought was possible. The following screen-grab says it all…

The Federal Reserve had to reconstitute the growth of its balance sheet (QE) not even 10 days after they announced they were stopping the reduction of it (QT). If not for this complete rejection of anything and everything they’ve said prior (aka “We’ve got this!”) shredding any remaining credibility (and there’s really none left at this point) as to their implied semblance of control or, said differently…

If they didn’t turn the printers back on – everything collapses. Just as I said it would.

During this whole process I’ve laid out notes, charts, commentary and more documenting all of this in real time, all in the archives. Here’s just a sample to back up my point…

From “The Only Thing That Matters Update” Oct. 30th…

Today, I believe, it’s now simply a coin flip as to whether or not things make it to the December 1st timeline the Fed feels confident in reaching. From my perspective: Without the Fed reasserting itself like it has prior (aka going back to doing everything they said they no longer need to) Christmas might not turn out like most are currently surmising

Or this from “How To Tell You’re In A Bubble” Oct. 25th…

When a Bitcoin™ creation company (aka Miner) decides there’s more value in creating an artificial intelligence data center, you should know what usually happens next, for both

Here’s what that looks like in chart form for the crypto cadre…

Again, during this entire process, the idea that Bitcoin could fall rather than go higher was seen as absurd. People had (and still were) strutting around like Richard Pryor’s depiction of a wealthy money grubber in the 1976 movie Car Wash. Nothing but more money, and mo’ money into the stratosphere. “Bitcoin was back, and was never looking back, baby!” was the rallying cry. That was until a few weeks passed, as another great movie and scene played this time by Bill Murray in the 1981 film Stripes – “Then, depression set in.”

Depending on what “bottom” you want to pick currently, Bitcoin has fallen over $40,000 in value from its recent highs (over $45,000 if you want to look at the lowest), where it remains vacillating around that ~$40K loss.

However, what this really means is that the great majority of Bitcoin investors of 2025 have not only had all their profits wiped out – but have also lost a good deal of principal. For the average price for those who bought into this latest wave of 2025 (as reported by several crypto outlets) was ~$94,000.

Can you say “Uh Oh?”

Here’s why the above is important: From a behavioral perspective the phrase “Once bitten, twice shy.” becomes far more trend setting than the once claims (as well as still) of Bitcoin riches.

If you doubt my assertion I’ll pose it this way in a question…

If everything told/sold regarding Bitcoin this year was true – then why isn’t everyone buying horns-over-hooves right here?

Here’s a possible clue…

To pump up any remaining hype (my conjecture) Michael Saylor’s company Strategy™ came in over the last few weeks and announced it bought more Bitcoin on what was surely seen as a “discount” at around ~$92,000. The problem with this is as much as Mr. Saylor likes to tout his average cost to date ($74,972) his average purchase for all of 2025 have now, clearly, lost money.

So much for knowing your market, but I digress.

The other issue with the above, for those that may not have noticed, is with this recent sell-off and his acquiring strategy this now makes his average holding profits at around a mere 15%. (e.g., $75K avg value vs $88K current market value) Then you have to deduct the cost for financing such acquisitions along with the dividend he pays, not counting all other normal costs as to run a business. Maybe, that’s the reason for the following. To wit:

Yes, that’s the ongoing “vote of confidence” regarding Mr. Saylor’s strategy and Strategy™.

Yet, it’s like its never happened or happening if you listen, watch or read the mainstream business/financial media.

If the current morass of all this continues into the few remaining days of the year…

The opening of 401K envelopes will be met with disdain, not the cheer everyone believed was guaranteed in July.

And that changes everything. And by that I mean just that – everything.

Note: This commentary is for education purposes only and is not to be construed as trading or investing advice of any sort. These commentaries/opinions are for “big picture” discussion purposes only. Please read, or re-read the “About This Site” page for any questions or clarifications.