When My Phone Doesn’t Ring – mytrbroadcast.com

For those of you that have been following my work over the years you know what the next line is, finishing that headline and why. For those of you that may be new here, it goes like this…

When my phone doesn’t ring – I know it’s them.

I began using that metaphor many years ago (I heard it somewhere, where escapes me) because it perfectly encapsulated what happened when everyone would (i.e., family, friends, et cetera) relentlessly call me with their take as to why I was wrong about some topic, then, as it was being proved I was more correct than they thought – my phone would go silent.

Almost no other topic has generated such responses than the trials and tribulations of what has become everyone’s favorite “Make me rich!” token: Bitcoin™

Look, I am fully aware that it has reached levels many never dreamed, and others still dream is only the beginning. What I have also done during all of its accent is show the pitfalls that the entire crypto-cadre staunchly remained blinkered to. i.e., the potential loss of value and in size – out of nowhere.

What I have also shown in vivid detail is the fallacy that Bitcoin was some how magically different in producing wealth than one could do, far more safely and with exponentially more liquidity, in some high flying stock such as Nvidia™ or others.

No one cared, everyone scoffed. It’s why I stopped.

To make my point once again, please understand: Unless you were one of the daring few that bought Bitcoin at the time, when basically, it took multiple coins to just buy a pizza then, held it and sold it at the top of the first true levitation into the stratosphere (circa 2021). There has been no point later, regardless if you bought at the low (aka “the reckoning of 2022”), where your gains could not be both duplicated if not surpassed buying a simple old fashioned stock. Period, full stop.

I have documented precisely this in prior charts and commentary (and was proved correct, all in the archives) over the years, while also predicting major moves, where significant sums of value (life changing to be more specific) were lost nearly overnight. All when the entire established business/financial media and crypto-cadre were racing and looking for any camera, keyboard or microphone to tout how “This time it’s different!” Hint: It isn’t and never has been.

Which brings me to today.

As of this writing the wonder known as Bitcoin™ (and it’s cohort Etherum™ more on this later) has suffered what can only be described as not another BTFD (but the f’n dip) moment, but rather, a WTF… “Where the F are all my profits!” debacle.

Bitcoin traded down under $100K in a near fell swoop.It has since recovered a bit (i.e., ~$102) but the damage both psychologically as well as balance sheet wise has yet to sink in, in my opinion.

This asset class has/still told-and-sold as a get-rich-quick safe haven. Today, once again, it is proving it is nothing more than a suckers game. And there are a lot of people that are sucked in finding out they are not as rich today as they were at the beginning of the year.

But here I’ll add a most precarious note: It just might never be coming back unless the Fed starts the money printers again, and soon. And even then – it may not have the desired effect; for things are just too overinflated.

And if all things (e.g., stocks and more) start deflating at once? Gravity may be the ultimate winner. I don’t believe anyone today is prepared to really think through the consequences of that statement if I’m proven correct. My hope is you are, dear reader. It’s the only reason why I’ve continued to comment on it.

Below is a chart I’ve been notating for years. I’ve cleaned it up a bit removing past notes as to show the recent machinations in a more clear space. However, with that said, it speaks more clearly to the current state of the crypto wonder as it sits today and to where it might actually go in the future. To wit:

All throughout this year I’ve been posting my thoughts and probabilities, and as it ran higher, my phone rang endlessly with people wanting to tell me “Mark, you just don’t get it!”

The only thing I seem to not be getting today – is my phone.

Funny how that happens.

Note: This commentary is for education purposes only and is not to be construed as trading or investing advice of any sort. These commentaries/opinions are for “big picture” discussion purposes only. Please read, or re-read the “About This Site” page for any questions or clarifications.