I watch the ripples change their size“Changes” David Bowie (track 1 “Hunky Dory” 1972)
But never leave the stream of warm impermanence and
So the days float through my eyes
But still the days seem the same…
David Bowie is one of my favorite artists, not only for his music, but as an exemplar in his self-determination and execution of where he wanted to go artistically and/or whether or not anyone else approved. i.e., music labels, music press, all the way down to fans. “He was his own man.” as the saying goes.
He took wild risks in both creating personas and musical theater, even to selling “Bowie Bonds” in the late 90’s. Yet, here’s the real insight: all regardless of any prior or still ongoing success from what he did or was doing in any given moment. Or, said differently: He was willing to throw any or all of it to the wayside and venture into something completely new and different if he believed that different path was calling.
If people liked it, all the better. If they didn’t, well, maybe, they’d like the next iteration. However, what mattered most to him was what he was interested in at that moment because, if he himself had lost interest, then everything following would just be “mailing it in.” And true artists not only don’t do that – they won’t. Regardless of financial concerns. It’s why I became more of a fan and admirer as time went on, now 50 years hence.
Which brings me to today…
On May 31, 2022 I posted what was then my last post regarding the financial markets and closed down the MYTR Broadcast along with it. I said goodbye to a global base of paying subscribers, long time listeners and readers, along with the “markets” themselves. I explained my reasoning for all of this back then, but to sum it up for those that may have just recently found or re-joined my work, it goes something like this…
“I’m just done with all of it. It’s become tediously boring to analyze – and frustrating beyond belief to justify arguing anymore with anyone that still believes what they’re watching, listening and reading via the mainstream business/financial media is informative. As I keep saying: Good luck with that.”
However, in spite of the above, I did feel a tugging of inferred obligation to post my thoughts as I was witnessing some dramatic implications progressing through said markets later in 2022 and into 2023 for those that may had just ventured back to see if I were posting anything. And a lot of you did, so I kept doing so on a ad-hoc basis as I saw fit. Then, I decided it was time to re-launch MYTR.
I felt the timing was right where I could use the current state of the “markets” as the backdrop to both provide some further insight, but also to see if I still “had it” as the term goes as to do the show at its prior schedule. It appears I did as many of you returned and many more of you became new listeners and readers. However, with that now ever increasing success came a downside: I was back to doing what I had wanted to stop doing prior. e.g., commenting primarily on “markets” and fighting the arguments of why I’m wrong and people like Jim Cramer et al, are financial geniuses. “Proof is in my 401K, Mark.” is one snide rebuke I had leveled at me, lately. “Fair enough, good luck with that.” was my only response and moved on.
I knew I needed to cut the conversation off right there or I’d just frustrate myself even more thus, my curt go-to. There’s nothing else for me to say because, I’ve heard it all so many times before. And no one wants to hear me argue or explain otherwise. No. One. Regardless of any credible or provable facts. It’s beyond infuriating to me at this point.
So many people said the same sort of things to me in early 2022, which was one of the considerations as to why I said “I’m done.” and closed it all down. Then – the “markets” fell apart in historic fashion just as I warned. Now? It’s those same people today, saying the same things they did prior, at the same sort of junction, and now want to argue the same point that failed back then which is “But Mark, this time it’s different!”
Geeeezzzzz….I thought I was done with all of that, but here I am – again.
The reason for this is not anyone else’s fault but my own. i.e., My success from this re-launch has not allowed for a primer into a new format, but rather, just a re-launching into what I was doing prior. Successful or not – it’s not what I want to do any longer. I’ve moved on (or at least had) from all these arguments and counter-arguments for why this is this or, that is that, or anything else regarding Wall Street, The Federal Reserve, “markets” and more.
I feel much like Al Pacino’s great line in “Godfather 3” (paraphrasing) “Just when I felt like I was out – it sucked me back in.” However, unlike “Michael” I’m not getting “back in,” regardless of how much success I could take things further. Personally, I’m done. It’s not where my head is at any longer -and- I’ve moved on and need to continue doing so. And if I don’t make a clean break of it right here and now – I’d just be “mailing it in.” And I’m just not built that way, regardless of how much money I can make doing just that. I respect you and your intelligence dear reader/listener far too much and know you would be able to discern it if I were – so I won’t. Which is why this note was forthcoming as to explain.
Now when it comes to all the above, I believe, a bit more “proof in the pudding” is needed to give a bit more context, so here’s a bit…
First: As I said in Monday’s latest and last show (July 31st) regarding “markets.” I said, my original analysis and thesis was still in play and was solidified as such because of the machinations that transpired on the prior Thursday, which I explained in detail via the post “Prejudice in Patience.” What I iterated on the show was that, as far as technicals were concerned, now it’s all about an exogenous event. Something probably coming from out of left field that will shock or do something that will suddenly cascade in a way that takes everyone by surprise. That will be when you know you’ve entered the backside of the hurricane I was discussing in the video with Charles Hugh Smith.
So, has something happened since? Yep. But its initial reaction in the U.S. markets was a complete encapsulation of what I have been trying to get across when discussing just how ambivalent everyone currently is to just how enamored the “Just BTFD!” (buy the f’n dip) cadre throughout the mainstream business/financial media has become. To wit:
That was yesterday (Tuesday) and it encapsulates everything one needs to understand when it comes to people like myself and others trying to argue sanity. i.e., there isn’t any – “Just BTFD Stupid!” remains the clarion call of the so-called “informed.”
However, just like I always argue to those many, same deaf ears that simply closed their eyes and BTFD horns-over-hooves yesterday: It means nothing – until suddenly it does. Yet, by then, it’s usually too late to do anything about it because, today, is suddenly turning into a very, very different day than the BTFD crowd has seen in quite some time. Japan and China in the overnight session anyone? Bueller? Bueller?!
As I am typing this the “markets” are falling apart. The NASDAQ™ is down over 2% and it’s not even noon ET. US 10Y bonds are exploding higher now well over 4% and a number of other metrics too numerous to note are also moving in size and percentage terms not seen in all of 2023. Again, and we’re not even at lunch yet.
Could it all reverse, turn around and head back towards “New high!” territory? Of course, no one knows. However, just two days ago the thought of this happening just out-of-the-blue was seen as a sheer improbability if not impossibility. That is – except for those of you that both read or heard my latest arguments to the contrary.
Most others would now be using an event such as this to both sell, entice as well as bolster subscriptions. Me? I’m doing exactly the opposite. I could care less about the opportunities, I’ve moved on. Truly, I really have.
What’s more important to me is both my credibility in analysis and prognostications (which is being proved out, once again, in spades) as well as my integrity, not to mention my sanity from the questions of “How could this have happened?!” from the same “Just BTFD!” crowd moments prior. Again: Been there – done that. Not going to do it again – that.
So where does this all lead from here regarding MYTR and this website? Good question, so let me try and answer it this way…
I thought I was sure a mere 6 weeks ago – but now not so much. But what I do know for certain is that any of – and all of – what I’ve been doing these last 15 years or so is now done, finished and not returning.
I might even close it all down, start anew, from scratch, in a whole new direction.
I want the complete break and don’t want anyone that has now found my work for the first time (and there are a lot of you, and thank you) to think I’m just going to do some variation around the edges of what’s really only the same thing, but different, going forward.
No, I am not.
I’m moving on and starting something completely different going forward, with a clear and definable line of demarcation for no confusion. July 31, and this post is that “line.”
So, now with that all out on the table, I will post one final current chart (~11:25am ET) of where we currently are regarding “markets” for all of those nay-sayers and more that kept telling me I didn’t know what I was arguing prior, and now don’t understand why such a thing is happening now.
Maybe it all goes back up and even higher. Maybe there’s nothing too all of this and it’s just an aberration as is being told and sold via the mainstream business/financial press as I type. aka “BTFD baby!”
Again, maybe it is, but as I say: Good luck with that. You’re gonna need it. To wit:
To see how the above fits into prior charts and analysis, you can do that (starting here.)
On everything else: I’m now finished.
The above will be my last word on it. It’ll either prove my arguments or disprove them. But I let them stand on their own and speak for themselves, which most don’t have the fortitude to even try.
Which is why I will.
So, once again, thank you to all of you. It’s truly been my honor to have been the recipient where you felt my arguments were worth your time for your own thoughts and analysis.
To all of you, I salute you and wish you all good tidings.
© 2023 Mark St.Cyr
Note: This is not trading or investing advice of any sort. This commentary is for “big picture” discussion purposes only. Please read, or re-read the “About This Site” page for any questions or clarifications.
For those that may want a bit more detail on the above, click on the above to listen to the last show (July 31st) before it and everything else is gone.