That Moment To Mark The Calendar

There are moments in time that mark history, many of those times mark moments where hubris combined with a myriad of disparate, simultaneous miscalculations create exponentially outsized dots on the timeline of history for all to see. Not by us, but those that come after, where they’ll look back and point while wondering “Were these people insane or simply just nuts?!”

Note: This is not trading or investing advice of any sort. This commentary is for “big picture” discussion purposes only. Please read, or re-read the “About This Site” page for any questions or clarifications.

If the calculations include the likes of so-called “brilliant” people such as Paul Krugman and others? My money’s on the former, however I’m still agreeable with the latter. Call it a coin flip with no losing side. But that’s just me, digress.

However, back to my original point: This may be one of those times and is why I’m both addressing it, as well as “marking the tape” as they say for the archives. So here we go…

First things first: For those that may be here for a first time let me address the following for some backstory…

On May 31st of this year (2022) I alerted all my subscribers, both my website as well as my daily show, that I was discontinuing (after 13 years) my current focus and prognostications regarding business, capital markets (aka “Wall Street”) and more to refocus and completely change my content to address other aspects that I had pushed aside many years ago. Currently that process is ongoing. More about that in subsequent updates.

My audience included some of the largest media sites across the globe while individual subscribers were also having an international flavor, encompassing the entire business spectrum and levels from CEO to solo practitioners et. al.

After I made my announcement, I notified and cancelled all subscribers (free as well as $300 annual subs), purged my email list, purged all past or present subscriber info, returned any subscriber’s balance – and completely archived my entire site of thousands of essays and posts, 3 years of daily audio (one hour and more) as to start again completely from scratch. This is why the website now appears a bit “thin” for prior content.

I have my reasoning for doing such, but all I’m trying to make perfectly clear to anyone that may be here for a first time and thinking “Why should I listen to what this guy has to say?” it’s this…

I have all the “receipts” as now said as to whether or not I know what I’m talking about, having those articulations carried across the global media stage for 13 years, while calling out many of the so-called “smart crowd.” And all of it is documented and contained in my archives, but more importantly, my past subscribers know and it is for their consumption I reasoned to articulate what follows. Or said differently: I don’t care what anyone else “thinks” about what I’m outlining. The ones that know (e.g., past readers and subscribers) are all I care about and this is for them. So think what you will of the following.

Again, just to clarify a bit further for those new reading this, thinking all the above is just all bullsh#t (because I know you’re out there). The true reason why I’m posting this at all on the front of this website is, remember I said “I deleted all contact info” above? I don’t play games, I do what I say and did. The following is for those that may venture back here of their own volition checking to see what I’m up to now and can read my latest thoughts. All the above is only for those that may find this by happenstance, nothing more, but needs to be noted.

So, with all that said. Let’s go…

As many of you know, in the latter weeks on my show, I articulated how “If you don’t get what I’m trying to articulate and warn you of by now, and still trying to fight my insinuations with arguments based on what you hear across the mainstream business/financial media. I’m sorry, I can’t help you and must finish trying. It’s too late. Best of luck, but understand you are so far behind that even if you ‘get it’ right now as I speak – you are going to possibly be so far behind the curve that trying to figure it out from here will be not just arduous, but possibly perilous. I hope I’m wrong, but that’s where we are.”

That point was made manifest when the first half of 2022 ended putting itself into the record books as one of the worst market selloffs in decades with some metrics eclipsing those not seen since the 1700’s (not a typo).

Every. Single. Asset class was decimated in unison proving my earlier points that the idea of “diversification” was a fallacy. Remember when I called out Tony Robbins years back for promoting his big “investing” prowess and “insight” book? Again, you just watched all that “prowess” and “insight” (much like I did with the entire Bitcoin™ and NFT™ geniuses time after time, after time after time…) unfold with devastating results.

Here’s how Deutsche Bank™, Managing Director. Head of Global Fundamental Credit Strategy summed it up via a note posted on ZeroHedge™ on July 1st. To wit:

Image source: Screenshot ZeroHedge (highlight my own)

“But we’ve bounced back!” you say. “So, maybe things are better.” you infer, right?

I’m sorry, but I think not only is that assumption potentially wrong – but this next move will make the prior (that all the smart-crowd argued back then was never a potentiality to even consider never mind weigh the potentiality) look tame in comparison.

Yes, I just said that and here’s why…

Many of you remember when I came back to the show from hiatus in November of 2021 after evaluating potential further virus implications for the business economy, I stated it was for this sole purpose: “I believe that the new year and subsequent months following would begin the process for a complete upheaval and possible economic turmoil that no on is not only seeing, but worse, is acting like it can’t happen. And if I’m right? It’s going to make the 2020 market crash look like a cake walk and possible rival, if not surpass, the Great Financial Crisis which began in earnest in 2007. If I’m correct, we are in that beginning phase. As always, we shall see.”

Re-read the highlighted sentences above for any clues as to if I was correct in my projections or not.

“So why all this today, Mark?” I can hear through my screens. It’s because of this…

I believe today, via my technical analysis acumen you’ve seen me postulate by prior, the “market” may have just tipped its hand signalling this relentless month long bounce from the prior lows – is now finished. And if I’m correct in my analysis? What comes next is what is going to cause havoc across the entire globe in ways many can’t comprehend. But what’s far more worse – most are acting like it can’t ever happen in the first place.

A few cases in point for my argument…

First: General Motors™.

It was just announced that the once bankrupt, only to be be saved via government intervention company known as “GM” (“Government Motors”) will resume its dividend while simultaneously up a stock repurchasing program for $Billions. Hint: watch for a repeat with a not so “happy” ending as prior.

Next: The now signed “Inflation Reduction Act.”

An economy that is faltering (two back to back negative GDP prints) while inflation is simultaneously spiraling higher (one month of flat at peak does not imply “under control” no matter what Mr. Krugman spews) while the Fed is hell-bent on raising interest rates and reducing its balance sheet to control said inflation, all while throwing another near $2,000,000,000,000.00 (2$trillion) atop that already inflationary fire is not only foolish. It’s like pouring nuclear fuel on an already blazing gasoline refinery.

Next: The Federal Reserve.

Does anyone for one moment still think they “know” what they’re doing and not just simply winging it? If so? I have some beautiful ocean front property in Kentucky I’ll sell you at a great discount. Heck, I’ll even take Bitcoin™ if you want! I’ll give you a deal you’ll never forget.

Next: Cryptos.

Unlike all the other so-called “geniuses” (you know, the ones paraded across the financial media and internet such as Tim Draper, Tom Lee, Max Keiser, Gary V., et. al.) regarding the crypto-sphere of influence. I, unlike every single one of them, have correctly called Bitcoins market machinations, price levels and yearly ending price targets correctly three years in a row, and all about a year in advance of each. My record of being correct is only blemished once by Bitcoin ending $4500 above my original thesis (i.e. would be in the red) to end the 2021 year, only to fulfill that precise call just six weeks later.

My entire thesis and projections (unlike any of theirs) year after year, after year have been absolutely correct – and still are. All of the above? Not even in the same universe never-mind solar system for their own projections. Think I’m being harsh? Here’s a test, ready?

Which is Bitcoin closer to both currently, as well as at any time its ever been traded?

Max Keiser’s 2021 year end reduced prediction of $144K that you would have needed to pay real money to hear him and others shout it from a crypto-faithful conference stage.
Or…
Zero.

Do I really need to say it?

(Note: I chose the above because it’s the lowest of all of them with some ranging far higher to $1million+. This $144K was a then reduced call of an earlier higher projection he had originally issued when, I guess, it was obvious to even himself that that wasn’t gonna happen and tried to tamp projections down. Hint: the “tamp” wasn’t even close.)

And please, for those of the “crypto-faithful” that may be reading this thinking “This ‘OK boomer!’ dude just doesn’t get crypto and got lucky by staying out and will be proven wrong in the very near future!”

Sorry, but no. I knew, argued and postulated the value of crypto, the technology and more before most, along with its possible value proposition going forward. I just didn’t “buy in” to the whole absolutely moronic “cryto riches” phenom told-and-sold by the entire crypto-guru-cabal. Again, for those of the “crypto-faithful” all I ask is this…

How’s the value of all those NFT’s many of you needed to procure to get into a “Once in a lifetime event” for crypto riches not that long ago? i.e., How’s your “wallet” doing these days? Have you been bombarded with any refund offers for all of that sage “advice” you bought into, literally? No need to answer, I already know, it was rhetorical. I’d also bet dollars-to-doughnuts the ones dropping the most F-bombs now are all those attendees as opposed to the so-called “informative” presenters. But that’s just me.

So that’s the vibe, but let’s go to something a bit more hard copy. e.g., Charts.

Remember when I posted the following as we were ending the 2021 year to the screams-and-howls of many that saw it and followed with the insinuation, “St.Cyr, you’re f’n crazy to think what you’re proposing can happen!” For a recap, here it is. To wit:

Here’s how that turned out as I discussed, postulated, annotated and more as the entire mainstream financial/business media argued the exact opposite (Jim Cramer anyone?) all the way through till May 31st. Again, to wit:

Now, let’s see an updated version of where we are today as I type this on Friday, August 19, 2022…

First, here is a zoomed in shot and precisely what I’ve been watching for. Today, that “signal” may have been activated. I will say this before I go on. This “market” has done a myriad of head fakes this past month, so this may not be “it.” But all I say to that is this…

It’s the first time one has compelled me enough to even write about the subject in months. So read into that for your own postulations what you will. Let me also point out it does not matter if you understand the lines or shading on the following. All you need to remember is that I do, and when it comes to technical analysis, I am also a bit unorthodox in how I use differing technicals for assumptions. All you need to remember is my work has been featured and posted alongside some of the very best in the field, where I’ve not only held my own, but also, have been proved correct more often than not. So, here we go.

The above is the S&P 500™ as I type this (~1:30pm ET) via one hour intervals. The “You are here” notation also is the signal I was watching for. Below is the same chart only in a larger time frame again using the same one hour intervals for a larger perspective. To wit:

And below is the same one I originally posted using daily intervals back in December of 2021 above only it shows you both the context, as well as continued progression to this point. Again, to wit:

So now there are lot of you thinking, “So what does all this mean?” It’s a good question, and it is this…

If I’m correct: The original “projected target areas” are now both on the table and possibly within reach in the very, very, very (did I say “very?”) near future. And if that is so? Forget what I think – you need to begin summation for your own conclusions and possible actions. But that’s where we are via my purview.

Am I correct? Who knows. And like I’ve said ad nauseam on prior occasions “No one wants to be more wrong than me, no one.” But that’s where we are I believe, and that’s why I’m posting all this.

Again, it’s for those of you that know “what time it is” and were just wondering if I was possibly seeing or feeling the same things that maybe you were also. Nothing more. I just felt compelled to do so, for I believe it’s that important.

So with that all said, the above last chart, in particular, pretty much shows the signposts to watch for going forward. As always, we shall see.

In regards to what’s coming here on the website and with myself in the very near future: Just stay tuned. We’ll be making some announcements on that and opening ways to be alerted, regardless what happens in the “markets” going forward.

See you all then.