I have heard a lot of different arguments resulting from the latest push higher in the “markets.” Listen to 10 financial analysts – and you’ll get 35 contradicting opinions. All of it, in my humble opinion, is nothing more than trying to sound confident as to why they should handle clients money, regardless if they truly have a clue or otherwise.
I could post another chart of the most recent machinations but in reality there’s nothing to see. The “markets” are in a holding pattern, or as I’ve dubbed it “screaming sideways” until the Fed renders its latest decision on Wednesday. However, for those that have doubted me regarding “liquidity” (i.e., lack of or, abundant) I’m going to post a headline that has been playing over at ZeroHedge™ for the past day or two. To wit:
The above is important, because, it’s a “And there it is!” moment. AKA vindicating my hypothesis and arguments that these “markets” can not stand on their own unless the Fed starts printing again. Wall Street both knows it, as well as now signalling the Fed – it fully expects them to do it. I’ll just add my own two cents worth – Or Else!
The Fed just stopped their run off of the balance sheet (QT) on December 1st, and already Wall Street is looking for the Fed to start QE (adding the run off back on) only 10 days later.
Again, re-read the above sentence. It tells you who has been correct about the stability of these “markets” – and whose been blowing smoke.
This is also the reason why the “markets” have recovered over the last few weeks – it believes that not only will the Fed actually cut rates (it was near 0 odds before Nov, that’s why it was falling) but now it has decided that the Fed must also begin the process of printing once again. Again – Or Else!
As always, we shall see, but see we shall.
© 2025 Mark St. Cyr
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