I was asked over the weekend my thoughts about the current machinations in the capital markets. When I replied along the lines of “Actually Scarlet, I really don’t give a damn.” (to paraphrase Rhett Butler/Gone With The Wind, 1939) the look of sheer confusion I received was palpable. At first I thought they didn’t get the movie reference and were “triggered.” (something akin to most reactions about anything and everything today) But after further dialogue, it was in direct proportion to what “they thought” was my only interest or obsession.
If one didn’t know me from prior writings, speeches or other offerings, it’s easily understandable. However, this person did, but as of today, the “markets” are all they seem to now be interested in. I guess, as I’ve iterated prior, their 401K balances have now grown sizable enough to push out all other considerations. Who’da thunk it!
As I reiterated what I posted here not that long ago that I was, for all intents and purposes, jettisoning off the once wild roller coaster narrative known as “Wall Street.” They truly seemed confused as to why. I’m going to post a chart of the S&P 500™ as of today as I type this to show my point for those that may also wonder why. To wit:
What you need to interpret from the above is this: From that low point on the left, every move higher resulting from every sell off happened because of one thing and one thing only — The Federal Reserve printed money, then cut it off, then started printing again. Every. Single. Time.
I called each turn in real time, arguing: They can’t do what they say they can do (i.e., stop printing and reduce their balance sheet.) And every time they try it’ll collapse the market and they’ll have to start printing again. Rinse, repeat.
There was some idea that they might, and I mean just that, might this time need to allow the reduction to continue for a while longer than previous episodes just for the sake of saving face and credibility. However, when they announced their return to expanding the balance sheet when they were not even two weeks from their pause of reducing it? That was it for me, and the resulting “The Fed ALWAYS has our back!” was finally made manifest for anyone with eyes to see and credibility to call a spade a spade. Wall Street financial/business talking heads et al stopped caring about that years ago. Now it’s all just calling rolls on a slot machine, nothing more.
If you think I’m off base about any of this I’ll just leave you with one question to ask yourself and see how you answer it. Not to me, but to yourself. Critique it, see where you truly lie, it’ll be fascinating where you might. Ready?
When I began calling out the issues that were happening in December, where the markets were then showing signs of the initial stress building from the Fed’s reduction program. I stated that if they did not stop it earlier, the turmoil would show its effects and get worse by the day. That’s precisely what happened. (All my conjecture, of course.) As the stresses became apparent the Fed then did the unthinkable and within 10 days of stopping it, started it once again.
Then, as the effects were still playing out (aka markets going down) the President launched the operation into Iran, and the markets slid a bit faster and lower. Everyone and their pet rabbit wanted to tell me that the reason for the markets going down was because of Trump, not the Fed’s prior actions. I countered all of that with, the Iran action is a secondary cause of it, not a primary. Meaning: these wheels were already greased, and once the original damage from the sell off met the new printing press (~$40 Billion per month to start) it’ll prove my point.
Want to know if my point was proven or not? Here’s your chance. Ready?
Please explain to yourself that the current market highs are based on reality and not more money printing. How? Because as of today: Gas is up to near DefCon levels, prices that are killing consumer confidence, the Iran action is not only not over, it’s restarting with no end in sight, and, but certainly not least, OpenAI™ missed revenue expectations and more when it’s supposedly the most singular reason why everything is up. In other words — everything is now demonstrably worse than when the markets were selling of back in December. Yet?
Have fun with your answer is all I’ll say. Yet, do take comfort in the fact that if you don’t come to a realistic answer, don’t worry, because nobody else cares. Literally, nobody. And why should they. Just sayin’.
These markets will not sell off until the market, for what ever reason via implied or tangible evidence, that the Fed either no longer has or, no longer can “have its back.”
Simple as that.
© 2026 Mark St. Cyr
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