On October 7th last year, I went on the record warning about the dangers I saw within the current “market” of that time. What I warned was for something more along the lines of a catastrophic movement emerging, not some out-of-the-blue styled minor correction.
Near hours later, Bitcoin™ showed exactly what I was arguing, this was against a backdrop of every talking head on the financial/business media outlets declaring only upwards and onward was the future. Hint: it crashed some 50% where it remains still.
The major markets wobbled, then pushed a bit higher, then rolled over in a slow meandering pace to slide lower and lower. I also warned that this would probably be the case for some time because where crypto has the immediacy of its movements sell-offs (i.e., the market is small and more susceptible to movements via large sell or buy orders) the indexes e.g., S&P 500™ et al. are vast in comparison and have the benefit of passive investment entering every single day (i.e., think 401K allotments and buybacks) so heavier selling pressure can be offset by this dichotomy.
This has perplexed many I talk to recently. However, what truly makes this confusing for them is not the current machinations, but rather, they’ve never really witnessed major sell-offs happening in once unicorn themed areas while others seem to just barely move or drift lower. After-all, this is anathema to how the “markets” have moved for over a decade. BTFD (buy the f’n dip) has been the clarion call to be rewarded. Every. Single. Time.
Till October 7th.
Sure, you’ve had some brief rallies – but nothing has stuck. To prove this point, as of this writing – all major indexes, as well as anything crypto, are lower today than they were then.
Yes, I can hear through my monitors right now the cohort that will be yelling “But, but the war! You’re trying to take credit when this was all caused by the invasion of Iran!! This is all bullsh#t!!!”
It’s a fair point, but it’s wrong, better yet it’s provably so.
Before the incursion began the “markets” had already rolled over and were at or piercing below Oct’s call on a daily basis. Once the excursion took place – more follow through has persisted to what was already set into motion prior. Or said differently: the Iran issue was a secondary effect exacerbating the original primary mover which is – the “markets” are severely broken and straining mighty – and anything other than full on QE via the Federal Reserve will not help. Repeat: Nothing.
To reiterate, I’ve laid out the reasons why in prior notes calling them out as I see them. Readers who have been coming back over the years since I shut down the prior offerings know what I’m arguing is correct. If you’ve just found my work recently by happenstance, you can go read prior notes that are still available and see what I was saying prior and compare while its still available before all that too is archived.
Currently, I’m still way too preoccupied with my recent move and studio revamp to regularly comment on “markets.” As I said prior – I’ve stopped doing that, I’ve only been posting my thoughts on it for past subscribers who wanted to know what I may be thinking at any given time. That’s it.
I will be still commenting in the near future, as stated in prior notes, just not in some form of schedule until we relaunch the show this summer, which I’m really looking forward to. More details on that coming out soon so just keep an eye out.
“So why the title and why this post at all?” some might be asking. Great question, and here’s why…
Because if I was incorrect in my original assumptions and thesis, only a fool would add and point out such thoughts once again, all the while, simultaneously, the entire “market” is trying to impersonate the rocket launch set for Artemus 2 tonight. i.e., Back to the moon!
Again, for context: Last night from Asia (Japan’s up over 5% last night alone) to Europe (Germany’s now closing in on 3%) to the U.S. closing yesterday nearly 3% higher and now moving still higher as I type this.
So, to reiterate which many will take as nothing more than a Fool’s argument. My conclusion to this latest blast-off BTFD scenario is that its nothing more than an oversold bounce setting up the very real possibility: we are now at the most dangerous place for a potential sell-off that rivals, if not surpasses, gyrations lower not seen since the GFC of 2007/08.
If you want to get in line and call me a fool, fair enough. But that’s how I see it, simple as that.
As always, we shall see.
© 2026 Mark St. Cyr
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