Here we are on this Monday morning before the U.S. cash “markets” open for what will be a busy week of earnings reporting for one of the most important sectors to the economy: banks. All I can say when looking at the recent movements over the last two weeks is stated in the headline: Interesting. “But why?” you ask. Great question, so let me pose a bit of hypothesis…
You’ve all heard of the “Farmer’s Almanac.” Well, stocks have their own version of this and much like the weather events in the former the latter predicts patterns that have manifest consistently in stocks, where it argues that the first two weeks of July have been one of the most consistent periods for positive gains nearing 100% accuracy. This year proved that to be true, once again.
So now comes the proving ground, if you will,, for whether or not all that bullish impetus will prove to be fortune or folly because we now enter the second half of the year and the third quarter (e.g., H2 – Q3 respectively) and the start of earnings reporting for the ending of H1 of its predecessor aka Q2 (second quarter). This is where things will become really interesting once again, in my humble opinion. For was all this bullish bravado well played or, was everyone just playing around in bullsh*t and about to be played?
I have a very distinct feeling we’re about to find out, and rather quickly.
Below is an updated chart of the S&P 500™ via the e-minis this morning around 8:00am ET that I’ve been using (previous found here). What is striking is just how contained everything still remains after weeks and weeks of “To the moon!” reporting across the entirety of the mainstream business/financial press.
Maybe they’re right. Who knows, but one things for sure…
I believe we are about to find out, as always, we shall see.
We’ll discuss this and more on today’s show.
See you there.
© 2023 Mark St.Cyr
Note: This is not trading or investing advice of any sort. This commentary is for “big picture” discussion purposes only. Please read, or re-read the “About This Site” page for any questions or clarifications.