Finishing Up

This will probably be the last post as we go into total rebuild mode for both the website and more heading into the year end. This last one, I believe, is instructive. The reasons for it are very simple: You are now witnessing, in real time, precisely what I had warned one year ago in the very same month. e.g., Everything that everyone says can’t and won’t happen – is not only going to happen, but in ways, manner and speed that’ll be near incomprehensible as to try and describe, for most will not believe me.

You are now here.

As I type this the crypto total market capitalization that began the year at over $3,000,000,000,000.00 (that’s $3trillion) is now calculated to be in and around $800+Billion. and still falling. More and more “Cryto-billionaires” are being liquidated out of existence as insolvent. However, what I want to emphasize about all this is something most still have no idea or, at the least, still don’t want to consider. i.e., This thing is far from over – way far.

The issue here, using just one example that I used years ago, is the situation that will take a bit of time to manifest, but most assuredly will – and in spades. e.g., Mass Mutual™ (MM).

I wrote a few years back when I was making my original arguments, that when the cryto-sphere finally implodes, it won’t be just the naive that will be the ones that loose their fortunes. It will be worse, much worse for the corporate entities and more that entered it as some sort of “manna” to aid gaps in their own perspective balance sheets.

That was when MM bought in at around $18K, then it flew to $68K for about a $50K profit in about 12 months. It’s now sitting as I type that at around $16K losing $52K in even less. Or said differently – not only is all the profit gone – so is some of the original principal. And it may not be done.

But that’s just crypto, do I even need to mention stocks?

The issue here is not what has happened to some companies. i.e., Amazon™ alone has lost $1trillion in market cap so far, and Facebook™ itself is still well into into face-plant mode. Google™ (Alphabet™) only days ago was just $10 away from being officially half the size (market cap) it was just nine months ago. And I’m just scratching the surface.

The real issue is – that all of this, to repeat, was unimaginable back in May when I said these final words before I went off the air and closed the website. Here they are for posterity. To wit:

“For if one doesn’t understand precisely where we are today – it may be too late.”

That was on May 30th, and at that time the entire mainstream financial/business media was still calling for “A continuation of the bull market!”

[Addendum: I received a note from a colleague reminding me of what I stated back in mid May concerning stocks, crytos, FTX™ and more. This goes right to the heart of what I stated in the above concerning, i.e., if you still don’t understand what I’m trying to warn you of, it’s probably too late. As I looked over what he was referring to, I decide to re-post it in full at the bottom of this post. (it’s now archived so I can’t just put a link) It speaks for itself on both what I was arguing – and just how clueless the entirety of the mainstream business/financial media was and continues to be. As I have repeated ad nausueam: I don’t need, nor want, to try to convince anyone as to prove myself, again, to anyone any longer on whether or not I know what I’m talking about – for it all resides in my archives, just as I have always stated. Below is just a fraction for that truth of argument. As always, that’s for you to decide, as it always should be. Now, back to where I left off. ]

The issue again is not what has happened so far, but what is still to unfold. Sure there’s been a bounce in the “markets” of late, but that’s all to be expected. The worse (in my view) is still yet to come, just as I warned.

Understand: There are a lot of people that have yet to realize just how damaged their “net worth positivity thinking” has been pummeled into sheer oblivion. Just how do you think they’ll start to react and live their lives once they see their year end statements for 2022?

Don’t let that point be lost on you, truly think about it, because it will dictate the mood of the economy and more for years if not decades to come. Yes – decades.

As always, we shall see.

Regarding my new endeavor…

The full revamp and more begins in earnest as we finish the year. There will be times the entire site might go dark and more, but that’s just part of the process. I do hope any of you that found your way back here, or any one new, has found these last posts meaningful for any insight.

And one last thing regarding everything on this subject i.e., “markets” …

I believe I can finally say “I’m done – and have nothing further to comment or prove.” For in the end as was said to me: “You were proven more correct and in more spectacular ways that even I am amazed at.”

Thanks Ma!

© 2022 Mark St.Cyr

Note: This is not trading or investing advice of any sort. This commentary is for “big picture” discussion purposes only. Please read, or re-read the “About This Site” page for any questions or clarifications.


ByMark St.Cyr May 16, 2022

During a conversation today, the subject of Bitcoin™ and more came up when, as I discussed on today’s show, because of my current state of health, I snarly replied to a comment he posed based on “Well, I see Robinhood™ is up some 25 to 30% via some cryto-wizard buying a stake. So what do you think about that?”

Here was my “snarly” response…

(Please note I made the following abundantly clear to them: I am not a kind, gentle soul when I am sick. So you’ve been warned, proceed at your own risk.)

Me: “You use this reference of ‘some 25 to 30%’ as if it means something. Do you think Robinhood recovered 30% on this news? Tell me, how much in share price value does that 30% precisely describe? 30% recover of the IPO price? A third of the total lost recently? From the recent highs? A week ago, month, quarter? What does that 30% represent? Give me a number.”

The phone went silent.

After asking if they were still on the line, I then continued…

Me: “Are you at your desk, now? Good. Pull up Robinhood’s price chart and tell me where that 30% uptick is. It should be clearly visible, after all, its between 25 to 30% so it has to be big, right? Let me give you hint to pick it a bit easier if you may be having a hard time now that you’re looking for it. See on the right hand side those two little blips? That’s your 30%. How’s all that 30% news fitting into the story you were hearing now?”

Them: “Geez, that can’t be right, can it?”

Me: “If you start with a penny and double it, you’re up 100%. But are you now “banking coin!” as the CNBC™ clown patrol would have you believe? This is why certain numbers are used as headlines across the media: People just buy them without question, which is why they use them, and that’s why it’s important to understand them.”

I continued…

“To another point. Why do you think some crypo-genius-billionaire, exchange owner thinks it’s a “good idea” to buy a failing fin-tech trading biz? Hint: Because why not spend some of that now deflating cryto wealth and buy something tangible and maybe stop the bleeding of your own deflating business? Again, what does it cost you? Hint: Nothing because your wealth (aka $Billions) was itself created out of thin air and is losing value faster than a day-trader with a RH account. Think about it. And if you’re selling the dream of ‘Trade and be the next crypto-king of the world!’ You might as well try to own it all as soon as possible as to, maybe, be the last person standing as it all collapses upon itself. Again, if Coinbase™ has now collapsed: you need a bit of good PR for press to maybe keep the sharks attention at bay hoping such a thing keeps them from circling around your exchange (e.g., FTX™) as ‘might be next,’ don’t you think?”

For those that doubt the above, here’s both the chart I’m referencing and I’ll link to just one of the myriad versions of the story that’s all the rage across the entire business/financial mainstream press.

First, the chart. To wit:

(Chart Source)

The story noted, again, to wit:

“Robinhood Stock Surges as Crypto Links Tightened With Investment From FTX Co-Founder” ~Barrons™ May 13, 2022

I’ll leave with the following augment I left them with…

“And if you look carefully and squint really hard? You’ll notice as of today, just one trading day later, that 25 to 30% bump is slowly being erased. That should tell you even more than anything you’ve read, heard or seen regarding it.”

But then again…

What do I know.

© 2022 Mark St.Cyr

Note: This is not trading or investing advice of any sort. This commentary is for “big picture” discussion purposes only. Please read, or re-read the “About This Site” page for any questions or clarifications.