Weekend Observations And Probabilities

Let me make the following very clear before I begin: Nothing that I pose below is to be interpreted as a “sure thing” or that I’m trying to be hyperbolic to entice fear, panic or anything else of that sort. As a matter of fact, as well as principle, what I would like you to bear front-of-mind as you peruse the following collection of charts, is that I’m wrong in my interpretations, and this will all end with me looking like some Cassandra or Chicken Little impersonator. Trust me when I tell you, no one would like to be more wrong than yours truly.

However, now with that on the table, let me speak very plainly and frank as to why I’m making the above statement…

As I have stated ad nauseaum on the show of late. What any thinking person who is either in business or follows my Business of I™ construct must now fully contemplate and understand from a primary position is this:

What do you think the world both looks like, as well as how others will act or behave, (i.e., allowing for credit, services, employment opportunities etc., etc., etc.) should the financial markets (aka Wall Street) morph into something that makes March of 2020 look like a cake walk or worse, rivals the financial crisis of 2007/08?

The reason for it is simple – from a technical analysis perspective, which I have been highlighting since my return in November of 2021, that possibility has now moved from a “possibility” to now more in line with” a high probability status.”

The “market” action over the last few days ending on Friday is what has moved that needle. To say we are in a “dangerous period for total market upheavals” might be an understatement. And I do not say that lightly. I mean it.

Again, I can not stress enough that I may be totally wrong, for it’s not like I haven’t been wrong before. However, as I’ve been stating, again ad nauseaum, since the Fed has stopped its quantitative easing, beginning with its announcement in November of 2021, suddenly, all the fundamental technical analysis that was destroyed has now come back in spades. i.e., Without the perversion and adulteration of monetary lunacy – fundamental technical indicators have suddenly become more accurate as in times past. And what they are foretelling is not for the meek.

The series of charts are of very important companies as well as the S&P 500™ and Bitcoin™. They are all represented via daily intervals and I’ve notated each with self explanatory markings. Some you’ve seen prior, but I’ve cleaned a few up where applicable to show a better representation of what they may portend. So here we go…

The S&P 500 as it ended Friday’s session via 15 minute intervals…

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The above in larger, daily, context …

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The S&P 500 via the futures closing (i.e., after the cash close) on Friday.

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Now on to the once vaunted FAANMG+ group, which collectively were all but the only drivers for recent “market” highs just prior to November 2021.

Facebook™ aka Meta™

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Google™ aka Alphabet™

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Tesla™ (aka “+”)

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Square™ aka Block™ (Poster child for “Boy Genius” reflecting all that is crypto)

(Chart Source)

For those of you wondering why I added Square and Bitcoin into the above, it’s because, as I have argued again ad nauseaum, “As go the markets, so goes crypto.”

What you are seeing in the above is that none of what has been told/sold regarding Bitcoin and more since the invasion of Ukraine (i.e., “Bitcoin is the saving grace for all that is fiat!”) not to mention what was coming out of the latest crypto world symposium hype just mere weeks ago has panned out. Actually, that and more has since been all but wiped out – just as I’ve been arguing, despite what all the so-called “gurus” have argued over the same period.

There are also other headwinds that could knock the “markets” into a turmoil evolving from outside the U.S. such as a sudden Japan market event, or currency event in either the aforementioned and the Chines Yuan along with the Chinese markets themselves, or something even worse such as all of the above concurrently. Again, both (Japan, China and their currencies) are themselves in a possible, far more precarious position than we are, currently.

I know, I’m all sunshine and lollipops on this Sunday. Trust me, I get it. But that’s where we are, and that’s why I have to believe you subscribe. i.e., to hear it straight as I see it and unvarnished. Good, bad or indifferent.

As I have previously warned, and it still stands, you still need to be aware, now more than ever, at what happens in the Asian markets overnight. For you could go to bed here in the U.S. with a “market” that looks all in control – only to wake and find we’re in “Lock Limit Down” status with no idea if or when they may even open.

Yes, I just said that…

Again, that’s where we are. To think we are not is foolhardy at best, and I won’t even say I what I think at worst.

All I’ll say in reflection to the above is this: This is what happens when right for all the wrong reasons (aka the entire mainstream financial/business media complex) meets wrong for all the right ones. (aka as, yours truly.)

But then again, I’m not on TV, so what do I know.

We’ll talk about this and more on Monday’s show. I’ll see you all then.

© 2022 Mark St.Cyr

Note: This is not trading or investing advice of any sort. This commentary is for “big picture” discussion purposes only. Please read, or re-read the “About This Site” page for any questions or clarifications.