As I type this (~7:30am ET) all eyes are awaiting the CPI (consumer price index) print as to see just how high it may be reported. There are whispers of a double digit print, which would be a real shock since the Federal Reserve has told everyone “they got this” and inflation was nothing but “transitory” as recently as just a few months ago. Even the White House has let it be known that they are well prepared for what may be a shocking number.
Well, all I’ll add to the above is this: That may be so, but I also remember just a few reports ago how the White House was bracing for a giant miss in the employment numbers and Shazam! they came in much better than anyone ever expected. For those that remember, I had also calculated, because of the sudden political posture to get out in front of it, that it may indeed just be a set up as they know the numbers before hand. (If you think they don’t? I still have that ocean front property in Kentucky. Call me for the deal of a lifetime. “Trust me.”)
Will this be the same deal? Hard to say, I think it really is a coin flip. Another point that makes this such a 50/50 call is they announced just as little as three months ago that they were changing the metrics as to calculate inflation going forward. So, is this where that new
aka CYA calculation gets introduced, where they suddenly look fantastic when the previous would have been terrible? Alas, this is the thought process for trying to figure out what used to be known as “simple math.”
I’ll just end here with the updated chart I used last night, with the machinations that have progressed. As I stated prior: It looks like that 4400 (I mistakenly typed 4600 last night, but the arrow showed the true value. It’s since been corrected.) area is the real demarcation point. To wit:
As always, we shall see, but it will be soon, that’s for sure.
© 2022 Mark St.Cyr
Note: This is not trading or investing advice of any sort. This commentary is for “big picture” discussion purposes only. Please read, or re-read the “About This Site” page for any questions or clarifications.