To say today has been an interesting day would be an understatement in many ways. Revelations about the First family, Ukraine, the entirety of the mainstream media, along with social platforms regarding the former in the suppression of news via so-called “fact checkers” and more is something historians will have decades of material to parse through and opine on. However, with that said, the “markets” have, once again, danced to the all too robotic-beat of that new sound sweeping the globe known as “A bit too technical”
The chart I’m going to post is notated in a way many might not understand if your not very familiar with technical analysis. So here’s all you need to understand and why I put so much importance on what it may portend for the future, now that today’s giant option expiry is in-the-can.
First, the chart. To wit:
Now here’s why I’m showing it notated the way I have…
When I say “A bit too technical” what you have to understand is that I’m not kidding. I truly mean it. The above chart is of the S&P 500™ as of the close of the session via 15 minute intervals. What I want to draw your attention to are the colored areas; then the text between the arrows and where they’re pointing; then the two diagonal arrows; and then the two circles. Here’s why…
I created (meaning I plotted those shaded areas, then mentally noted that if what I was interpreting was correct today the “markets” should finish anywhere between those arrows – and – that “between,” if correct, should end somewhere around where that circle is on that line. Then, I left for the entire afternoon on business and just returned to look at what had happened during my absence.
Folks, I’m going to tell you all in pure honesty: I’m good, but I ain’t that good.
Yes, I know my stuff, however, it’s now becoming all a bit too predictable for my comfort level.
There are so many different factors that I haven’t even expanded on that are within that chart which are, again, “text book” that I could build a manual for what to expect just out of what has been happening since I began notating it now going on several months.
Here’s just one that some of you may understand using things like “wave analysis” or the formal Elliott Wave™ version of such that those two arrows represent, for they are exactly equal to each other (i.e., the price movement plotted beneath for start and stopping points, not the arrow themselves) and are indicative to patterns relating to predictive correction rebounds opposite of what maybe signalling a larger downtrend.
Again, it’s not that I’m charting Elliott Waves or purely using the broader application of “Wave theory.” However, what I am saying is that if you were looking for text book relationships to point out and you are a “wave technician?” It doesn’t get anymore text book than what you’re seeing in the above. It’s simply uncanny just how many different other progressions suddenly all seem to be expressing themselves all at once and congruently. Again, I’m literally out of words to describe it, and for those of you that know me – you know that’s saying something.
Side note: I have nothing against Elliot Waves per se, for I can even plot them using their methodology and rules, but all I will say is this: “There is no holy grail.” For I know many a “waver” that bear the scars to prove just how fallible that seemingly “infallible” system can be at all the wrong times.
So all I want to leave you with is the following to also contemplate over the weekend, along with the other hypothetical I asked at the end of today’s show, which is…
If, again it’s a big IF, the technicals that are being expressed via these “markets” as currently interpreted are correct. How do you think the world reacts and views everything going forward if the “markets” fell another 20% minimum from here over the next few weeks?
Because that’s what’s being expressed if interpreted correctly.
As always, we shall see. But that’s the current prism I myself will be parsing my thoughts through over the weekend.
See you all on Monday.
© 2022 Mark St.Cyr
Note: This is not trading or investing advice of any sort. This commentary is for “big picture” discussion purposes only. Please read, or re-read the “About This Site” page for any questions or clarifications.