Where Things Stand: Update

Since December I’ve been showing the following charts making adjustments as the “market” machinations expressed themselves over time.

There have been quite a few “head fakes” as the term goes, but I have reminded readers that the implications for what and where I was watching with intent was where the real “action” would take place if my observations were correct.

Many thought “Oh look, there he goes again drawing lines that never seem to play out, blah, blah, blah.”

They’re fair criticisms, but that doesn’t mean my hypothesis was incorrect. The issue has been for over a decade: The Fed. For without their support – it all comes crashing down. That’s why that $4.5Trillion line represented so much peril in just one simple line, for it represents the only support in the market. And if it broke, many things are going to break and quickly, or as I’ve said in subsequent charts, “Stuff is going to get real, and real fast.”

Here’s how that’s playing out as we sit here on the morning before one of the most important Fed conclave decisions arriving this afternoon at 2:00pm EST. To wit:

From December…

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Then, on January 10th I showed the following chart as to show what I was watching and why. To wit:

(Chart Source)

Here is today’s as of 7:30am EST before the day session opens…

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As always, we shall see. But today is one that needs to be carefully watched for we could be up big, down big, both up then down big, or even down big then up even bigger as markets scramble trying to figure out just what they’re supposed to do with the latest Fed policy moves.

But then again, the media has been all insightful giving and spreading the sage advice of you know who…

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Well, that should make everyone feel better, right? Right?

© 2022 Mark St.Cyr

Note: This is not trading or investing advice of any sort. This commentary is for “big picture” discussion purposes only. Please read, or re-read the “About This Site” page for any questions or clarifications.