Please Square The Following Circle

My position on Bitcoin™ has been clear from day-one of this year, which was: I believe Bitcoin will end the year in the red (aka: at a loss). I have not wavered, I have not tried to parse my position or alter it. Whether it happens or not is immaterial for me, unless you want to point out I’m the only public figure that has put dates, levels and more (aka: charts) out far before hand (i.e., around a year prior), and has proven the “experts” wrong and my conclusions correct.

This is now my third year-end prediction concerning Bitcoin made 12 months prior. Will it be substantiated? I have no clue (although I have laid out my hypothesis as to why, consistently) and have always said so, however, here’s that “square this circle” dilemma I find quite a few HODL’s (hold on for dear life) are going to be thinking through migraines this morning. To wit:

First…

Just three days ago the latest vaulted “expert” Michael Saylor of MicroStategy™ went on Tucker Carlson’s prime-time show to explain to everyone that’ll listen why: “Bitcoin is the oxygen mask” as to save oneself from the dreaded “inflation” monster. He also said the following, again, to wit:

Because of the inflationary impact on goods of this ‘manufacturing’ of dollars, you’re never going to catch up because you are being paid the currency: “the only way you can actually stay ahead is to grow your cashflows faster than the rate of monetary inflation… and that’s why the rate of expansion of the money supply is so critical.”

Sounds pretty informative, well researched, has money on the line, etc., etc., etc, yes?

Again, to reiterate, that statement (along with all the other so called “experts” piling on in the twit-universe tweeting their affirmation should by all accounts settle any naysayer arguments, again, correct?

So, let’s look at how all that protection from inflation has worked in just the last two nights, because as of last night (Friday)..

(Chart Source)

Currently it has bounced from those lows, however, no longer does the price start with a six or five, but a four. Worse yet, it’s going the wrong way to start with a 100 or more as all the “experts and gurus” have been proclaiming – All. Year. Long.

With “expert analysis” like that, I think they (the experts et. al.) need to worry more about deflation than inflation, because last time I looked – that’s a loss of a lot more money percentage wise (aka ~40% from the highs) than the current rise in inflation – not to mention, far quicker. They better hope their “investors” still hold the same viewpoint after sitting around thinking about just that this weekend.

But then again, they’re the experts. After-all…

They’re on TV, right? Right?

© 2021 Mark St.Cyr

Note: This is not trading or investing advice of any sort. This commentary is for “big picture” discussion purposes only. Please read, or re-read the “About This Site” page for any questions or clarifications.