In my best Oprah impersonation: “You get a new high! And you get a new high! Everyone check under your keyboards, new highs for everyone!” (insert wild-eyed, crazed, audience screams here)
This is currently the reaction to the “markets” including Bitcoin™. This has also induced a new flood of notes to yours truly from friends and colleagues in varying snickering type under and overtones, asking: “Sooooo, have you changed your mind regarding any prior forecasts?”
For those that want to know my answer, here it is as plain and as simple as I can make it: “No.”
Regarding Bitcoin: I made a year end prediction or call on the record at the very beginning of the year where I postulated rather than go to “The Moon!” in 2021 as the so-called “experts” were crowing (i.e., $144K – $250K on the low end to $1MM+ on the high). I believed (and still do) it would end in the Red, e.g., lower on the year than where it started. (e.g., under $29K)
For those that may not remember – it went from $29K to about $65K in about 120 days. Then – it went back to where it all began (~$29K) in all of about 30 days where it remained there for months “On Sale!” and no one cared- again, no one.
Sure, it rose a bit during the end of summer, only to fall back to where it was in the original “This is it!” initial blastoff in the first week of January. But enthusiasm? ________(add hissing sound here)
Or, said differently: If you bought Bitcoin on or about, January 8th, HOLD (held on for dear life). As of October 1st, you were basically at break even status for those 10 months of HODL.
Only in the last 20 days (yes, just under three weeks) have all the prior $40K to $65K HODLers that believed “This is it!” back then – are now finally back to even and/or above. Why? Hint: “We’ve got a Bitcoin ETF!” (ticker symbol: BITO).
As Archie Bunker (Caroll O’Connor) of the TV series “All In The Family” (1971-1979) would say: “Well, whoop-de-doo!”
It sounds very similar to what they were saying last time. i.e, _______________(fill in whatever you want that sounds good, rational reasoning need not apply.)
So, as I’ve maintained since the beginning when it seemed my earlier prediction was far more closer to realization than all the so-called “experts” prior: “It’s a year end call and anything can happen, up or down. We’ll see then.”
I still stand by that argument. I would also like to point out to those that may be thinking: “Well, there’s really barely any time left for such to happen!” I would say, “Au contraire.”
Last time we were at these heights in April – we were back to break even status in a month. We still have more than two to go, we’ll see then. Maybe we’ll be at $100Kplus, who knows. Although, here’s what I do know: The “experts” sure don’t.
If they did, then why weren’t they in there buying Horns-Over-Hooves when it was sitting dead-in-the-water for months during the summer? You’ve basically only heard the latest “cow flatulence” in the last two weeks. However, it has been taking more oxygen out of the air in regards to anything else of late.
With that said, I would like to jog a few memory’s back to February and ask: Was it not far more pronounced (i.e., the calls of “This is it!”) back then than it is today? Few want to compare, and even fewer want to remember. I would propose that many that are now being caught up in this rapture think back a bit, that’s all I’m suggesting.
Below is a chart showing the entirety of the moves as of this writing. To wit:
Nothing there has changed either. We’ll see in November if my prognostication is right or wrong then.
And there you have it, for those that want to know.
As always, we shall see.
© 2021 Mark St.Cyr
Note: This is not trading or investing advice of any sort. This commentary is for “big picture” discussion purposes only. Please read, or re-read the “About This Site” page for any questions or clarifications.