I’m going to make the following as succinct as possible…
As I currently type this on, Monday ~10:00AM ET, the “markets” are doing its best to try and gain as much height and exposure it can (all conjecture, of course) as to be fully exposed to the next earnings reporting beginning in earnest on Wednesday of this week.
Here is a chart showing precisely where it currently stands. To wit:
As one can clearly see – there’s been a change in the “markets” behavior in respect to what I’ve coined “The $4 Trillion Dollar Line.” Hint: And it ain’t good.
From a technical analysis perspective, the inability to both remain above that line, as well as falling further away in time and price, should be alarming to anyone trying to stay ahead of market forces and more. However, not only is “Mum’s the word!” on such across the entirety of the mainstream financial/business media. Yet, maybe even worse: They really have no clue. Personally, I assign their “financial and business insights” to the latter, but that’s just me.
Here’s what I’m going to say in regards to the above, and you can take it however you want. It is precisely what I stated to a colleague just moments before I began writing this article, and is what prompted it. Here it is…
If I’m correct in my assumptions of just how precarious this “market” is poised, here’s what I’m looking for as to confirm my thesis…
Somewhere between now and the next 30 days (e.g., first week of November) If the S&P 500™ trades with a “3 Handle” (e.g., 3999 or less, which is about a 10% down draft) that would give me confirmation that the idea of a “dam beginning to burst” was in full play, and, one should be prepared for things far worse to unravel in its path just as quickly. That’s about all I’m now looking for, in this time period. Everything else – up or down – I consider clearly noise. Take it for what it’s worth, which may be nought. But there it is.
As always, we shall see. However, I believe that “see” is expected to be soon, very soon, if I’m correct.
© 2021 Mark St.Cyr
Note: This is not trading or investing advice of any sort. This commentary is for “big picture” discussion purposes only. Please read, or re-read the “About This Site” page for any questions or clarifications.