F.W.I.W. Update

(For What It’s Worth)

In my last missive I laid out an argument for why one needs to be far more attentive to the “markets” than usual. i.e., Because, not only can anything happen – and usually does. But, it’s the timing of that “happening” that usually has the most deleterious effect to those that think “It can’t happen!” – then does.

Now, I know that’s a pretty broad statement that can mean a lot of different things to an even greater degree of different people.

However, what I’m trying to highlight are: The danger signs for some real turbulence regarding not only the “markets,” rather, what they also have the potential to do to nearly ever ancillary segment of society that they touch, which just so happens to be: everything.

Buying into the “Everything is just awesome!” narrative because, one thinks their 401K, job, business, etc., etc., etc. is now “bulletproof” reasoned by: “The Fed’s got their back!” May be the worst thing one can do. Especially, where we all stand currently at this moment in time and history.

To help back this thesis, I just want to lay out something that gave a friend of mine not only pause, but rather, a “Wait…WTF did you just say?!” moment, as we were chit-chatting yesterday about things. And it was this…

As we were talking about the absurdity regarding today’s “markets,” I made the following point…

“If I told you at the beginning of the year that Amazon™ stock could go red for the year, after all you’ve heard over the last months or so, you’d more than likely have in your head that was obviously a wrong call, correct? So, if you were to look at its stock price this morning, I would assume you would be thinking as you typed in its ticker symbol “There’s no f’n way.” Fair assumption? So, before you do. If we were to wager loser pays for breakfast. You’d be pretty secure taking that bet, would you not?”

He said: “Of course, but now since you’ve said that, you’re not going to tell me…c’mon, really? Nah…can’t be. Right? Don’t tell me you’re gonna tell me…”

“Don’t take my word for it.” I said. “Look for yourself.”

Which he did.

At the time (yesterday AM) the price was yet to go negative on the year but, was close enough for “horseshoes and hand-grenades” example purposes to make my point. (However, not actually being negative at that moment I lost the bet, yet, my point was made.)

To reiterate further on what I said after he brought up his own chart…

“Now, please try to explain why Amazon is down over 10% and being sold even more, rather, that being seen as ‘On sale, and the sale of a lifetime!’ with buyers buying horns-over-hooves as the markets print even higher highs, and, another multi-$Trillion package, and, further lock-downs are all on the table that is said to benefit this company the most over all others?”

Hint: He couldn’t because, it no longer makes any sense when compared to the narrative that had been propelling it non-stop since March 2020.

So, what does all the above have to do with anything I’ve been warning about? Great question, and it is this…

The “markets” hit another record high in the overnight session. And the moment said markets opened? Amazon went not only lower – but red for the year.

As of this writing (~10:30am ET) Amazon has since recovered a bit but, is still languishing at those lows. Below is a chart showing precisely that. To wit:

(Chart Source)

The above depiction does not fit in with anything the mainstream business/financial media has been stating in regards to their “expert” analysis. It’s completely anathema. Period.

However, what should be concerning for those that want to keep their eyes open for possible fallout the above may foretell is this…

Amazon is one of the six companies (Remember “FAANG?”) that have been the main driver for not only narrative building, but also, its outsized relationship for helping to push all the indexes higher.

We (the “markets”) have been printing new all time highs nearly every day – but just barely. And with every new print higher Amazon either goes lower or, remains flat on its back.

As always, we’ll see if it remains there or, a precursor to future possibilities for the entire “market.”

Yet, in regards to my next breakfast meal?

I sent him a note this morning saying: “Open that chart again, and, next time – you’re buying!”

© 2021 Mark St.Cyr

Note: This is not trading or investing advice of any sort. This commentary is for “big picture” discussion purposes only. Please read, or re-read the “About This Site” page for any questions or clarifications.