F.W.I.W.

(For What It’s Worth)

Today is one of those days when anything can happen – and usually does.

As I write this (around 10:45AM ET) the U.S. Senate is about to embark on what can only be described as “monumental legislation” for passing a spending bill.

Many have described the aforementioned as a “Trojan Horse” because, supposedly, it will open the door as to usher in an even larger (nearly triple) spending bill that may be passed via only one political side (aka “Reconciliation process”), which circumvents any possible changes or curtailing via the opposing side. i.e., You’ll get what we tell you – and that’s it.

Whether one is for this or not is immaterial. It is what it is, and it is set to be voted on (or the process begins) somewhere around 11:00am ET. [Update: The first $1.2Trillion has since passed. And, in the overnight, the additional $3.5Trillion has also passed. Both have now completed the initial stages and are “on the table” for becoming law if all goes as planned.]

The reason why this should be watched carefully is for the reaction via the “markets” to it. Everyone believes this is going to just be another “shot in the arm” for the “markets” to go even higher. That may turn out to be true, however, with these “markets” now completely stretched to extremes that now dwarf the Dot-Com top of 2000? All I’ll say is that anything can happen. Repeat: Any-thing.

Below is a chart I’ve been using as of late. What I would like you to pay attention to is this is an extreme closeup using 15minute intervals via the bars/candles. What I would like you to notice is the feature I coined “The monkey-bar effect.”

The reason that this is important (or, at least used to be before QE) is that it shows the prices being paid are “swinging” under the line rather than above as prior. What you’ll note is, so far for the month of August, prices have spent the majority of its time clinging to the line, rather, than above it.

As always, we shall see. But, for those that want to know what I’m currently focused on in regards to them.

Here you go.

(Chart Source)

© 2021 Mark St.Cyr

Note: This is not trading or investing advice of any sort. This commentary is for “big picture” discussion purposes only. Please read, or re-read the “About This Site” page for any questions or clarifications.