Over the years I have found, to my amazement, that many of the offhanded sly remarks I would hear resonate from “the elders section” were, many times, not as snarky as I would first assume. Rather, over time (say, as one grows older) you come to find out there’s far more truth in that snark than you realized, then.
One of my favorites from my early adventures in business was: “Instant expert – just add opinion.” All I can say to that today is, “Wow!” For that seems to be the absolute truth regarding Bitcoin™ specifically and cryptos in general. Again, just wow!
Over the past weekend I, just like any one else that may have the slightest knowledge on the subject, suddenly began receiving inquiries on my latest thoughts regarding Bitcoin and more. The inquiries came from different circles I haven’t heard from in awhile, some, quite awhile. Purely coincidence, I’m sure of it. (Yes, snark intended.)
Rather than bore you, let me get to the gist of one conversation I found quite illustrative in regards to this phenom.
During the conversation I was asked for my thoughts on why there’s a sudden correlation for both Bitcoin, as well as Ethereum™ seeming to be locked at the hip, and not in a good way. i.e., They are both going down, in unison.
What happened next began to put the maxim I started with into illustrious splendor.
As I gave my reasoning, which more or less mirrored what I’ve articulated in prior articles (i.e., it’s just a rotation into the next speculation trade, etc., etc.) I was bombarded with a diatribe of “insight” that sounded like I was watching a segment on CNBC™.
Matter of fact, that is precisely what it was, because I can vividly remember how I laughed, and laughed, and laughed as I remembered I was watching a business/financial channel, not the comedy one.
He (my guest) was basically articulating all the great “insight” he has garnered via watching anything and everything related to cryptos in the mainstream business/financial press. I had a nagging suspicion he’s been binge-watching because, there was a very distinct feeling he “took the plunge” and bought in – and – at much higher prices, where now he was getting a tad concerned and looking for assurance.
However, the assurance was not going to come from me. No, his “assurance” was going to be just how well he could convince himself that he had the winning argument against anything I might articulate using his now, new found “expert” analysis.
In the beginning he seemed to have all the right, “clever” arguments as to why it’s this, not that. Why it’s going to the moon, not into the dumpster, because, “It’s not centrally controlled!” All fair points.
However, the issue wasn’t that we couldn’t agree on many points. What really began to eat at him was how he could not prove me wrong. All he could do when he became flustered was to then try to end any worm-hole argument with, “Well, we can agree to disagree.”
My response was, “Nice try, but no. You, just can’t argue against my points any further. You’ve run out of ammo, therefore, you want to end the conversation on some type of ‘draw’ basis. No, it’s anything but a ‘draw.’ You’ve only been able to argue what you think is correct by what you’re hearing on CNBC and others, as if it’s correct. Most, if not all, are not. And I know it, because I’ve actually done the homework. So, nice try.”
That’s when things, as you may imagine, began to teeter on the edge of “testy.” But, it was there that I threw this next line, and why I felt the need I should articulate the above to you, dear reader. Just in the case that you may either find yourself in something similar or, you may just not know. And it was this…
I next stated: “You say you’re pretty up to speed on this whole Bitcoin thing. Fair enough, so let me ask you this, ‘Just what do you make of the this whole PoW/PoS aspect in regards to crypto and what do you think is going to be the fallout?'”
He went blank, then said, “What?”
I retorted, “Precisely, my point.”
Some of you reading this may already be aware of the PoW (proof of work) vs PoS (proof of stake) argument. However, for those that don’t, let me use the most simplest example for comparison purposes: One is a full electric vehicle – the other – would be like a hybrid (think Prius®). And what you now have is this congruence of the two beginning to play out in real-time, now, because the battle for “riches” needs to be reinvigorated before the entire
grafter charade “game” falls apart. i.e., The “Ponzi” similarities to the “end game” may be beginning in earnest.
Those who’ve been reading my work or listening to the broadcast at the beginning will attest that I have consistently stated that the idea of crypto-technology may have a spectacular future in regards to many different aspects it can be applied, such as business contracts and other such avenues.
Sure, maybe even in the form of payments but, that is all quite fluid in regards to forthcoming possible/probable regulations and other possible hindrances to be played out.
I have also been on the record, for years, arguing that the term “bitcoin” is synonymous for what the term “plastics” encompassed in the 1960’s. i.e., “Invest in plastics!” was all one heard back then but, that’s a general term.
Actually investing in “plastics” meant buying stock in specific companies that worked with it. “Cryptos” may seem more in line with that, today. But, for the general public over the last few years – crypto is bitcoin – and interchangeable.
You as a maven may know the difference, but the vast majority? Not so much. Regardless, if they may have their cold-hard-cash invested. Think about it.
When I articulated back to my friend that possibly the reason why both Bitcoin and Ethereum (and many others) are suddenly going down in unison is because, all the “easy money” has been rung out of it (aka “suckers wallets”) and the only thing comparable (as to draw in new “wallets”) and stay in the crypto arena is by moving from one (PoW) into another (PoS).
However, the problem with all of that is this: Once bitten – twice shy.
If Bitcoin or any of these so called “fantastic investing opportunities” begin to crash back to levels that enveloped a majority of people that “bought in” thinking this was their ticket to getting rich, which is basically the case for the vast majority?
It’s over – as in – over, over. Period.
And for those who may be reading the above and thinking to themselves, “Mark’s only trying to front-run a narrative himself where this thing is going down and he wants to appear, ‘as if.”‘
It’s a fair point.
So, to answer that honestly and forcefully, here’s a sample of what I was saying going back into January of 2018 alone, when Bitcoin, back then, was supposedly “Going to $Million!”. To wit:
What it may or may not do, or be worth, in the future is very, very, very (did I say very?) much still up-for-grabs, for blockchain may not be the format of choice going forward to solve many of the issues it is said to. e.g., Hashgraph may be a better overall structure in the end.
To think this has all been decided and one “needs” to invest on the premise (much like those on TV inherently argue) has been beyond ludicrous. And that premise of “ludicrous” investing ideas is now showing up in some very real, very sizable, losses requiring payment (as in losing) actual, real $Dollars and cents.
On an aside: If you have one-red-cent “invested” in any form of crypto-currency, and this is the first time you ever read, or even heard of the term “Hashgraph?” That proves prima facie that you too have been caught up, or followed the same investing premise known as “mania” that engulfed the “investing” public back in the 1600’s now known to all as the “tulip bulb craze.” If you’ve ever sat back and wondered “How could people have been so crazy?” You now know first-hand. It would appear de facto the only thing that never changes – is the human condition.“Bicoin’s $20,000 Problem” January, 2018
Just to be clear: “Hashgraph” is PoS type technology, as compared to PoW, which is Bitcoin and Ethereum.
But, then again, what do I know.
© 2021 Mark St.Cyr
Note: This is not trading or investing advice of any sort. This commentary is for “big picture” discussion purposes only. Please read, or re-read the “About This Site” page for any questions or clarifications.