From ‘Text Book’ To ‘Guess Work’

On Thursday of last week I posted a series of charts that I was watching in regards to the current “markets” and what they could be signalling via a technical viewpoint. By Friday morning they were displaying what can only be called “text book” machinations in regards to what the technical patterns were signalling and their odds for it. Below is a chart showing precisely that. To wit:

(Chart Source)

Then, as seems the case ever since, soon as that weakness appears – it suddenly disappears with a relentless bid out of nowhere to reverse it. This happened Friday, and it happened, again, today.

Here’s what that looks like as I type this at around 7:00pm EDT just after the overnight U.S. futures session began. Again, to wit:

(Chart Source)

Now all I can truly say about the above via a technical perspective is this…

It’s no longer “text book,” but as of this moment, it still is showing all the signs the original pattern and subsequent action portended. i.e., exhaustion. In other words: it can get back up there – but can’t get beyond it.

It appears the $1.9 Trillion stimulus is already plugged into the arm. It now needs the other “speed-ball ingredient” to further the cocktail so this QE based junkie of a “market” can get to those nirvana highs and beyond.

If the “King Pin” (aka Jerome Powell) fails to deliver precisely what this market not only demands, but actually needs to survive – it’s going to be a very gut wrenching, withdrawal laden, rest of the week going into an options expiry Friday.

As always, we shall see. But from here on in? It’s all anyone’s guess. That is…

Until Wednesday afternoon.

© 2021 Mark St.Cyr

Note: This is not trading or investing advice of any sort. This commentary is for “big picture” discussion purposes only. Please read, or re-read the “About This Site” page for any questions or clarifications.