F.T.T.W.T.K.

(For Those That Want To Know…) what I’m watching.

Currently the “markets” are all abuzz signalling “Good times are back!”

Maybe they are, however, what I would like to draw your attention to is the following “picture” on the state of said “markets” using the S&P 500™ as of around 11:15am EST. To wit:

(Chart Source)

I would like to point out where the “Then here…” arrow indicates is precisely when non other than “Uber Dove” Minneapolis Fed. President, Neel Kashkari apparently provided the “rescue signalling of ever-the-more QE at the ready!” the “markets” required to then assert a reversal. His wording? To wit:

“If we were seeing a real uptick in real yields, that would give me pause,” Kashkari warned during a live-streamed interview with The Washington Post this morning…”

And that unleashed the algos to then perform a reversal of fortune unseen in size and scope of a intraday BTFD (buy the f’n dip) bonanza not seen since the 2011 EU Crisis bailouts.

Funny how that happens, no?

Currently the European market is about ready to close and has been itself of a tear of over 3% in some exchanges. Now the question is, does all that “exuberance” continue to carry the day in the U.S. markets?

As always, we shall see. But, what one should take careful note is what I’ve been warning about. And that is…

Interest rates.

With all this so-called “Fantastic!” backdrop of supposed confidence inducing market action: Interest rates on the 10Year Treasury have not only – not gone down – they’re up pushing above 1.6%

1.5% is where the Fed and everyone else gets nervous. Just look at the price action on the above chart and the context of Mr. Kashkari’s comments. That was when we were a tad over 1.5%. Now, we’re far above that in real terms.

We’ll see, but that’s what I’m currently focused on.

© 2021 Mark St.Cyr

Note: This is not trading or investing advice of any sort. This commentary is for “big picture” discussion purposes only. Please read, or re-read the “About This Site” page for any questions or clarifications.