2021 Prediction: Bitcoin

It’s quite laughable when anyone makes a prediction about the future these days, for it’s now become hard enough to predict what will happen today, never-mind tomorrow. Yet, with that stated, I would like to make one for 2021 that is diametrically opposed to what you are hearing the so-called “smart crowd” predict.

So here it is…

I predict that we have just about seen the top in the so-called “crypto space.” I believe the lead stallion, none other than the daily flogged “Bitcoin™” has for all intents and purposes reached its apex. In other words – I think Bitcoin’s trajectory from here on out through 2021 will be a path lower. And maybe a path very, very, very (did I say very?) much lower. What evidence do I base this call you ask? Fair enough, for it is this. To wit:

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For those of you that are looking at the above and scratching your head thinking “Huh?” Let me help you. That’s a Twitter™ post from none other than NFL® star Russell Okung.

It is Mr. Okung’s desire (as well as advice to others) that his approximate $14Million compensation be paid in Bitcoin rather than $Dollars.

Now it’s very possible, as well as plausible, that Bitcoin may venture to go higher from here. But how much higher, I believe, won’t be anything matching all the expectations and pontifications currently being told or sold.

Will I be proven correct? I have no idea. All I will state is that I was one of the few (actually only one I know of to put a price target a year out, twice, and proved correct. i.e., All the so-called “experts” at $20K were calling for $200K+, some $1Million+.

I said its going to around $3K – and it did, twice. All on the record, all in the archives.

They say “Once is luck, twice is coincidence, and thrice shows you just might know what you’re taking about.” This would be my third-time’s-a charm if it did. Honestly, I truly could care less as I’ve explained many times on my show. But when I read the above? Well, that made me decide to make the call, let’s say.

But there is precedent for such, which I’d like to bring back to the discussion to jog a few memories.

Remember way back in November of 2007 this headline? To wit:

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For those that don’t recognize the name, that’s the world-renowned supermodel aka Tom Brady’s wife. Back in 2007 she was complaining about the value of the $Dollar vs €Euro. The €Euro, at that time, from a currency perspective, was what all the experts were calling “on fire!” only to go even higher, as the $Dollar (by all those same experts) was said to be going further “into the toilet.”

Guess what happened next? Hint: All the so-called “experts” were not only wrong, but the $Dollar began ascending and the €Euro went into the proverbial “toilet” where it remained ever since.

It’s been a running joke/punchline for more than a decade and counting.

I think it is quite possible that we are now in that very crux for a similar swing in Bitcoin. However, there is one very much larger companion issue to all this.

The swing in currencies back then was in direct proportion to what was the very nascent beginnings of what we now know as : The Great Financial Crisis.

God help us all if this marks another. Not saying it is – but always remember…

History may not repeat – but the rhyming can still leave quite the mark.

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr

Note: This is not trading or investing advice of any sort. This commentary is for “big picture” discussion purposes only. Please read, or re-read the “About This Site” page for any questions or clarifications.