(For Those That Want To Know)
Below is the latest update to my running commentary of how I see the current “market” machinations and what they may portend.
As I’ve repeated ad nauseam on my show: Not only has the market not done anything to change my mind since I started this commentary. Over the last week or so you’ve heard me use another term just as often. That term is “exhaustion.” And today may be where that term finally peters out, along with said “markets.” To wit:
The above is just an updated version of the same chart I’ve been using with a few updated notations, which speak for themselves. As you can see we have now begun to fall away from what had been the “monkey bars” I used to describe the blue line. And it seems the “market” has lost its grip.
The issue here, so far, which could change as we’ve seen repeatedly, is there is now nothing but empty space to drop into if that is what this “market” appears to be signalling, since it barely broke to a new high, for it then fell away with near immediacy, after it was revealed (as I said to watch for) that the Fed. signaled via the release of their minutes – there is no “Yield Curve Control.” action planned at this time. i.e., There isn’t a plan for even more QE (quantitative easing). At least, not yet.
And without more QE?
There’s no more “rocket fuel” to push this thing further into orbit.
In fact, just like trying to get real rockets into space: fail to reach space and escape gravity’s bound, things have a way of coming back down in a much different, and in a much more scarier fashion, than they did in reaching its apex.
The real takeaway for the above is that tiny red line I annotated saying “This line can’t…” Because if this “market” does, in fact, breach it? The odds of fulfilling my original commentary, which began this whole dialogue, comes rushing front and center and in a hurry.
As always, we shall see. But for those that want to know what I’m currently watching and thinking, the above is it, because we could very well be at an inflection point that has serious connotations.
© 2020 Mark St.Cyr
Note: This is not trading or investing advice of any sort. This commentary is for “big picture” discussion purposes only. Please read, or re-read the “About This Site” page for any questions or clarifications.