(For Those That Want To Know)
I thought an update to my ongoing commentary was necessary after a discussion I had with a colleague today. That discussion revolved around the idea that “This market sure is strong, are you still of the same view?” to which I responded: “By ‘strong’ you mean what? Because from my view it is anything but.” To which I then proceeded to explain what I was watching and can be expressed by using a chart of today’s “market” including today’s price action.
However, before I do, let’s use both a prior and latest I used a few weeks back for some context, first. To wit:
The above depicts where I first thought something would resolve only to nullify that presumption, then resolve precisely in the same manner only from a larger and higher point. Remember the “Diving board” analogy I used? So it begs the question: Where are we now? So to answer that, let’s do another “picture” shall we? Again, to wit:
The above is the same as the prior only notated, including today’s close. The issue here is, to address my colleagues assumption of “This market appears strong.” I would say, from a purely technical view – it looks anything but.
As a matter of fact, as one an clearly see, we are a lot closer to that first “Your Spidey senses should be going off!” than we were over a month ago when I first pointed it out. That area is noted above as “This is the area…” for those that haven’t been following along since I started this running commentary.
So there you have it. Will it, wont it? No one knows. But what I do know is this…
It’s getting far closer to where I said it would – then someone who said “We’re never going to see it again.” should be feeling comfortable.
As always, we shall see. Although that may be a lot closer than far too many ever dreamed possible.
© 2020 Mark St.Cyr