It would seem over the last few weeks my efforts to no longer concentrate on the “markets” has done nothing but illicit more commentary than even I thought I would. However, there is a very explicit reason why I have and it is this…
The implications of what may be becoming more evident by the day are enormous, and have the potential, for making the February spike down look like a picnic. That’s not hyperbole.
In my running commentary I’ve been basically using the same chart over and over again with differing notations, technical pattern descriptions and more. What one needs to understand and take to heart in my analysis is this:
Although the “markets” have seemed to beat the odds at every turn (remember the “two of clubs?”). What it hasn’t done is negate the overall premise. What it has done (as I’ve explained numerous times over the years) is with every near text book pattern it negates – it moves on to complete the same circumstances only in a much larger pattern. Here’s an example…
If one pattern suggested a 10 point drop and was negated. The next pattern that formed awaiting results is one that would suggest a 100 point drop, and so on and so on. Then there’s the one that suggests a 1000 point drop and it seems to be negated at every turn. But “seems” is the operative word.
There are multiple points within the exact same pattern that get bowled over, but what happens is it just sets itself up for another try at a different level. Think of it in the way you would apply the idea of “Russian roulette.” Just because you got a “click” doesn’t mean you’re in the clear by a long-shot.
We are at this period once again.
As I’ve been describing in my commentary, first it was this Fibonacci level, then this one, then another, then a gap fill, then a higher one, then a gap fill and big Fib level. You get the idea, on and on, and on, for what has been seeming like forever. But again – the premise of what this technical patterning was implying has yet to be resolved – only prior possibilities have. i.e., Think “click,” “click,” “click.”
Again, I’m only marking these latest moves because the implications are that immense. If you do not fully understand where we are in respect to the capital markets, especially in the current political climate with protests, rioting and more. You are underestimating the possible consequences.
Currently everyone across the mainstream media, as well as business/financial media, is giving some form of “all clear” signalling when it comes to these “markets” as if the worst is behind us. I believe there is nothing more further from the truth than that hypothesis. And it’s the people that are thinking just that whom may suddenly find themselves in far worse circumstances than they ever imagined.
I believe you are here because you do not plan on being one of them, and it is with that overview and respect for your intelligence I continue my commentary.
So now with all that said let me use a chart I took of the S&P 500™ at the close of the day session Friday. To wit:
The above chart shows two features of what I’ve been trying to express. The first…
It’s the exact same pattern as all the prior except we are now at a higher level. The second…
The exact manner in which this pattern calls for the highest odds to resolve is, once again, playing out in text book fashion. It’s so near picture perfect I can only, once again, repeat myself and say: uncanny.
I’ll finish using one last analogy to describe the above: Think of the prior as walking up the three meter diving board and all your friends sitting around the pool convince you to go higher to the five meter platform. You were fully confident at three, and even though you are only two meters higher?
It looks and feels a heck of lot scarier if you make a mistake there, does it not?
That’s where we currently are, and as always, we shall see.
© 2020 Mark St.Cyr