I’ve been inundated with calls and more about what I’m watching in regards to the “markets,” especially in regards to this so-called “new bull market.” Don’t blame me for the sarcasm sounding quote. That has actually been used in both print, radio and TV. And they wonder why no one views them as credible, but I digress.
As I’ve stated on my show, I view the recent gyrations over the past few days as nothing more than month-end/quarter positioning. Remember: there are more shenanigans that happen at any month/quarter end than almost at any other time. So with that said here’s what I’m looking for in terms of my prognosis. To wit:
The above is a chart of the S&P 500™ represented via 15 minute bars/candles as of the cash close today. I believe we’ll end up in that darker shaded area within the channel to both close out the month and maybe even go a bit higher on April 1st to start the new month, probably breaking up and out of the channel (doesn’t have to but odds favor it) to then pursue a rather steep path downward towards the lower arrow. It is quite conceivable there are two outcomes should this happen.
The first: We find some sort of support there and then migrate back upwards.
Or: we could break through that area and not find any real support until the index is well below 2000, sporting handles that begin with 19 or worse – 18.
Doesn’t mean it will, this is just how I’m viewing what I’m seeing and thinking if my “reading of the tea leaves” is correct – that’s what I’m watching to take place in confirming it.
Let me also state for anyone new: This is not trading advice or anything of the sort. This is only my interpretation of how I’m envisioning these “markets” under the current circumstances. For as I always make clear: If anyone tells you they know what’s going to happen next don’t just walk away, but run – and fast!
© 2020 Mark St.Cyr