As I was looking through some photos, for varying reasons, I came across this one and it was the date that hit me. To wit:

April 28, 2008

Now here’s the reason why it “hit me.”

The above represents a period of time in my life that some would argue was the “pinnacle” of achievement. e.g., I had just retired (3 years prior), moved to a brand new location in the country with fantastic weather and landscapes that inspire the term “God’s country” every-time you left the house. Moved into a just as beautiful, award winning property, that was better landscaped and appointed than most high end hotels. Again, a multiple award winning development for management and property details.

As you may garner from the above photograph – my smile – just about says it all. i.e., The kid everyone said “would never amount to anything” did all the things everyone said “couldn’t and wouldn’t.” Never-mind successfully grabbing more than one of life’s “Brass Rings.”

I felt precisely, at that moment of time, I hit life’s lottery. Nothing was given, I worked extremely hard for every break, many times with such life changing set backs I wondered if I had more in common with Job than Jobs.

Now the reason why I’m presenting the above is this: I’m not trying to impress you with anything. What I am trying to do is to impress upon you what came after, as a matter of fact, shortly after, because it’s the reason why I do what I do today. In actuality – it’s the genesis for much of it.

So to put the above picture in context I would like to present a few other “pictures” as they call them in Silicon Valley and let them speak for themselves. The “I take a picture” note on the first chart is the precise date the above photo was taken.

I’ve made further notes on them describing their relevance, so without further ado, here they are. To wit:

(Chart Source)
(Chart Source)
(Chart Source)

The reason for all the above is this…

I distinctly remember, like it was yesterday, all the so-called “smart crowd” arguing why the markets were doing this, that and other thing – only to be proven that they had precisely no clue at all, et al.

Now it is the same crowd (and many of the same ones from prior at that) not only saying the same arguments as they did prior, but proselytizing ever-the-more confidently than ever that there’s no reason for concern, because: The Fed’s got your back.

The only issue I’ll ask is this…

What happens when the Fed realizes that no one has theirs? Or for that matter:The “markets” realize it first? e.g., How much longer can Repo-maddness go on? And what happens when it stops? Or the reverse: what happens when everyone knows they can’t stop, ever?

That is when the real craziness will either begin – or end.

As always, we shall see.

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr