I was just made aware that the Federal Reserve has changed its press conference schedule from the every other meeting ( or 4) to now there will be one after every meeting for 2019. (e.g., now there’ll be 8) And if that changes my thoughts in any way. Here’s my response:
No. As a matter of fact I believe it will bring even more volatility for these two reasons:
First: That means every meeting has to now be considered “live,” where an additional interest rate increase may be possible. Everyone will think this means that there’s now opportunity for the Fed to pause. That may be true, but that also means if the data (data the Fed focuses on) continues to be good, then the Fed can also accelerate. Doesn’t mean they will, but that does mean it’s a possability and will have to be factored in, regardless.
Second: This now means the Fed has twice as many opportunities to say, or not say the wrong thing, at the wrong time, which now doubles the possibility for increased volatility at every meeting.
As I stated earlier – it may not matter what the Fed says as to halting the already accumulating carnage. However, what they can say is the wrong thing (as well as not say if the “markets” are looking for it) at the wrong time something that can exacerbate any further market mayhem.
After-all, if everything was going along as swimmingly as they have been stating it has, i.e., “We got this!” Then why the need to increase the pressers at all? Think about it.
As always, we shall see.
© 2019 Mark St.Cyr