Almost as soon as the “markets” closed I received an inquiry from a colleague asking me my thoughts and if they changed from my previous thoughts now that the “markets” resolved higher.
My answer was: “Absolutely not, as a matter of fact, I’m even more committed to my stance than previous.” Here’s why:
The “markets” closed basically well within a hare’s breath of the level I pointed out the other day. e.g., 2750 (actual my charts says 2759.99)
What did not happen, as I said should be what happens if the “all clear” signal from the Fed. was to be taken as every pundit across the media is convinced. i.e., “The Fed. blinked!” We didn’t rocket any higher making up any further prior lost ground.
All we did was basically vacillate all day with a few minor moves back-and-forth till the end of the trading day when everything month-end needs to be settled. Again, the “market” action was nothing more than what one would expect in any normal month-end close. i.e., nothing extraordinary or out of the usual.
As I stated both on my show, as well as in writings, we are still in what I call the “manic- depressive zone” of a market. And in fact we are only 75% back from the depressive side (2600) to the manic side (2800.) Again, that’s it.
What is the event to determine what comes next is on deck called the G-20. Should this meeting do anything other than be resolved in some sort of positive manner the area that I indicated that will be the first tell that we may be heading lower is still valid. We’ll see on Monday.
Here’s an updated and simplified version of the same chart I’ve been showing for the past few days. To wit:
We should know by Monday morning if this first signal is still valid, may be even by Sunday evening U.S. time as Asia opens.
Here’s what I still believe…
We are either going higher in a manner that would make a Saturn V rocket envious. Or – we’re going lower in a fashion that would make a professional cliff diver think twice. Which way is still up for grabs, but what is almost as sure of bet that one can make it this:
We ain’t staying here.
© 2018 Mark St.Cyr