The Tale Of The Tape Says It All

Back at the beginning of this year (2018) one would be hard-pressed to not encounter the marketing materials or the fawning media interviews and reports of that day’s cryptocurrency and in particular Bitcoin “genius.”

People like James Altucher, Thomas Lee, Tim Draper, John McAfee, Teeka Tiwari, _____________(fill in your own “genius” of choice here) were telling anyone that would listen (and more importantly anyone that would buy their schtick) that Bitcoin was poised to end the year anywhere from $25,000 to $100’s of thousands, with the elusive “Who knows maybe a $Million!” dangled as if, if not this year, next year was surely possible. Hint: it isn’t working out as told and sold.

As the year rolled on it became patently obvious (that is, to those with any business acumen or sanity) that the prognostications foretold for retirement riches and easy money were not going to be fulfilled. However, that didn’t change their evangelizing. Well, maybe just a little bit.

Mr. Altucher? His whole bit went up in smoke much like I would assume the real $’s that he vacuumed out of the starry-eyed devotees that purchased his “retirement advice.” However, ever the consummate snake oil purveyor, he switch mid stream and went right into offering investing advice in pot. How’s that working out, one may ask? Good question, see “up in smoke” reference above for clues. 

When it comes to the others they have not backed off their claims for riches this year even though the price of Bitcoin has fallen from its highs in December of 75% or, said differently: lost 3/4’s of its value and looks to lose even more.

Thomas Lee recently (as in about a week ago) lowered his year end target from his once lofty $25K to $15K. The others? Let’s just say I believe its too ridiculous to even bother to reference. But have no fear – they are still as adamant about their year end price targets as any snake oil salesman is in their product claims. Just read the fine print if you don’t believe them. That is if there is any.

The difference between myself and most so-called “gurus” is that I make my argument, document what I’ve said, the reasoning why, then let the chips fall as they will. Of course I am not always right. However, with that said, I have been far more correct (and accurate) in calling some of the largest macro economic and financial related topics across the globe, as well as business, not to mention my predictions on IPO’s, social media and Silicon Valley.

So it is in that light I would like to present what should be the last piece of evidence showing exactly who was the “expert” and who was not. To wit:

The above chart was just one of the many I presented back in February. And for those that care to remember (and those who would like to forget it all, you have my condolences) this was at the height of the Bitcoin craze.

You pretty much could not watch, read or listen to a mainstream business/financial outlet without being bombarded with guest after guest for “crypto-genius.” The above mentioned were in the heaviest of rotation, so heavy it would make a Top 40 pop-star envious. And when it came to retirement advice via the “crypto-genius?” His ads were more frequent than a politicians on election day. You could not get away from them.

So the obvious question is: “Who was proven correct?” Hint: it would appear none of the above. And when it comes to calling out a “target price?”  Let’s just say using the most downwardly revised figure of one of the media’s incessant darling for appearance e.g., Thomas Lee, we seem to remain quite a loooooong way away.

There’s only one true way to tell, and that’s with a chart of where Bitcoin now resides. To wit:


The above is Bitcoin as of this writing. So far it has rebounded off its earlier lows of around $4142.45 earlier this a.m. And for those who like to always find fault (as in the HODL crowd) in such things as ” You don’t know what you’re talking about. You’re not even smart enough to use a real Bitcoin chart!” Fair enough – so here you go. To wit:


So, using the above “pictures” as evidence there seems to be only one conclusion: Of all the “geniuses” the only one that precisely predicted not only Bitcoin’s year end target value correctly, but did it during its most boisterous manic stage. A stage what will surely go down in history as one of the greatest examples of speculative manias the world has ever seen.

Again, the correct one is the only one that eschewed the terms like “genius” or “guru” or any other such moniker. I only used…

Common sense backed with business acumen.

© 2018 Mark St.Cyr