FWIW Chart

For those wanting to know what I’m currently looking at for clues and why, here you go. To wit:


The above is a chart of the S&P 500 represented via 15 minute bars/candles as of 2:30 pm thereabout Wednesday ET.

I am using the above for the reasoning that the “markets” now have secondary confirmation via the release of the Fed. minutes that the other members appear to be well on board with the Chair’s position to keep raising and reducing the balance sheet in a “steady as she goes” type manner.

If the “market” decides it’s now going to position into a “shoot now, ask questions later” mode itself, the first inkling for a move should appear with a break through the bottom of that violet channel, then a follow through into the gold box, and then a subsequent break to the lower red line.

If that were to occur that should be a signaling for immediate concern again, that’s if all three described moves happen in short order, one following the other, in a kind of rapid succession. “Rapid” meaning from a few minutes or hours going forward to a few days at most.

Should that happen there’s where everyone, and I mean just that, everyone, will need to re-access their BTFD (buy the f’n dip) prowess going into the year-end. If it doesn’t than a run higher is possible. But that would take breaking through the top of that purple channel with some followthrough of it’s own.

Don’t know if any of it will happen or not, but that’s what I’m watching, for those that want to know.

As always, we shall see. However…

At least we’re looking.

© 2018 Mark St.Cyr


Here’s the same chart I notated earlier only at the close of the cash market. To wit:

Notice precisely where it stopped and bounced into the close. I adjusted the arrow and notated the update. Remember: That line was drawn before that nouch, not after as you can compare with the original. In technical terms we call that a “Freakin’ pay attention to this, because someone or, something seems to be also.”

© 2018 Mark St.Cyr

Addendum to the Addendum:

Here’s an update with the notations I talked about during today’s show. To wit:


As one can clearly see (just look back at the prior charts for comparisons) what I laid out for possible interpretations and followthrough has so far materialized as I suggested. So now it’s all about the next step in the progression, if it does come to pass. However, with that said, the odds are now clearly in favor of a worse case scenario unfolding rather, than a best.

As always, we shall see.

© 2018 Mark St.Cyr