How To Spot When A Trend Is Over

Remember when comparing anything today to the dot-com crash of yesterday was immediately refuted with the clarion calls of “It’s different this time?”

Or how ’bout when criticizing most “tech” business models was seen as blasphemy and immediately rebuffed with a unified chorus supplied by many a Silicon Valley aficionado or next-in-rotation fund manager as “not getting tech?” Hint: Is yesterday to long ago?

Whether one wants to read between the lines or take those lines literally is always a very complicated task. However, that doesn’t mean that one shouldn’t look for clues in helping one to insinuate relevance or not.

So with the above said I want to make note of the following, and as always, let you be the judge and jury as to what they may imply. So here’s today’s example:

What does it signify when the founder/CEO of one of Silicon Valley’s most prominent publication’s (and critical) openly states, (paraphrasing) She wishes “…she could sunset Pando and move on?” And that “move on” reference is to move on to something completely different from anything similar when one thinks about “tech” in general.

Need a bit more of an example to help form any opinion? Fair enough, so let’s use one the above’s latest articles to try to get a bit more insight for the tone of “The Valley” today, shall we? To wit:

Via Pando August 9, 2018, “Facebook is closer to being another Yahoo than another Amazon”

“Something big is happening in social media, and investors in social-media companies can’t make up their minds what it is.”

Personally, I believe investors are not confused about what’s “happening in” social media, but rather, what’s about to happen to it, that is raising their concerns.

Here’s another hint to what may be causing a lot of consternation, on all sides:

Is it better – worse – or much the same, to be compared to Yahoo rather, than AOL?

Or is that a trick question?

© 2018 Mark St.Cyr